Less transactions but rising prices. The real estate market in Italy, in the year of the pandemic, goes slower but no less rich: according to Istat in 2020 the prices of new houses registered + 2.1% in 2020 and those of existing houses (which account for over 80%) grow by 1.9%. A trend that in the last quarter of the year saw both transactions (+ 8.8%) and prices grow, with Milan at the top of the ranking of the most expensive cities: under the Duomo, prices rose by 7.4 %, a small record these days, while prices are falling in big cities like Rome and Turin. The houses in Milan (especially the prestigious ones, but not only; new buildings are also good) therefore return to be at the top of the buyers’ preferences, as they did a decade ago. Indeed, compared to 2010, the value of the sales recorded an increase of 5.6 per cent (read the article by Elisabetta Andreis on the Milan real estate market).
Sales are falling, but prices are rising
More generally, in 2020, the year of the health emergency due to Covid-19, the prices of homes purchased by families recorded the widest growth on average for the year (+ 1.9%) since the time series was available of the IPAB index (which measures the trend in house prices, born in 2010, ed), comments Istat. This dynamic – explains the institute of statistics – manifests itself in a context of decrease in sales of residential properties by 7.7% compared to 2019, confirming how the trend in house prices is affected only in part and with a delay by movements in demand.
L’North-driven increase, with the South and Islands where they rise again while in the Center they remain almost stable.
Compared to the 2010 average, in 2020 house prices are still 15% lower (-21.6% for existing houses, + 3.6% for new ones). The acquired rate of change of the index for 2021 is -0.3% (-0.6% for existing homes and + 0.8% for new homes).
The last quarter of 2020
According to preliminary estimates, in the fourth quarter 2020 the price index of houses purchased by households, for housing or investment purposes, increased by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 1.6% compared to the same period of 2019 (it was + 1.0% in third quarter 2020).
The trend increase in IPAB in the last quarter is due both to the prices of new homes which grew by 1.7%, slowing compared to the previous quarter (when the change was + 3.0%), and to prices of existing homes which increased by 1.4%, accelerating compared to the third quarter of 2020 (it was + 0.7%).
In the last quarter of the first pandemic year, the demand for purchases returned lively, to the point of marking almost 9% in sales volumes. These trends – explains Istat – are manifested in a context of lively growth in sales volumes (+ 8.8% the trend increase recorded by the Real Estate Market Observatory of the Revenue Agency for the residential sector for the fourth quarter 2020, after + 3.0% in the previous quarter). On a cyclical basis, the increase in IPAB is due solely to the prices of existing homes which recorded an increase of 0.3% while those of new homes decreased by 0.3%.
Milan, prices still up
The 2021, for the moment it is stable with respect to these trends, with the IPAB rate of change acquired for 2021 equal to -0.3% (-0.6% for existing homes and + 0.8% for new homes).
In the fourth quarter, the trend growth in house prices on an annual basis driven by the South and the Islands (+ 3.0%); prices grow but less markedly in the North-West and North-East (respectively + 1.7% and + 1.8%) and slightly in the Center (+ 0.2%).
In the fourth quarter in Milan house prices increase, on an annual basis, by 7.4%, confirming sustained growth although decelerating compared to the previous quarter (it was + 12.0%). TO Turin and Rome, on the other hand, house prices are falling (2.0% and 0.5% respectively).