2023-12-15 13:01:25
)The debt moderates below 110% of GDP in the third quarter, but marks a record of 1,577 trillion The debt-to-GDP ratio falls more than four points in a year due to the boost in the economy
The Spanish public debt steps on the accelerator in the third quarter of the year and marks a new historical maximum: 1,577 billion euros. This hole has widened by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (8,523 million) and 4.8% compared to the same quarter last year, with 72,553 million more, as a result of lower income and higher expenses derived from the impact , in recent years, from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the rise in prices, according to data published this Friday by the Bank of Spain. The State, which maintains a policy of incessant spending, accounts for the vast majority of the debt.
However, the GDP ratio moderated to 109.9% in the third quarter of 2023, which represents a moderation in the weight of the debt of more than one point compared to the figure for the second quarter, when it reached 111.2. %, and more than four points below compared to the same period last year, when it stood at 114%, but only thanks to economic growth, not to spending containment.
The 2024 budget plan sent to Brussels last October sets out optimistic forecasts for economic growth – the Executive expects the economy to grow by 2.3% in 2023 and 2% in 2024 – which it assures will allow them to reduce the ratio debt/GDP up to 108.1% already in 2023, advancing by one year the objective of placing it below 110% to maintain this rate of reduction during the next year up to 106.3%, which would mean a reduction of 14 points compared to its value in 2020. According to these estimates, the downward trend would continue in 2025 (105.4%) and 2026 (104.4%), but the Sánchez Government’s calculations are made based on an impulse of activity that are not created from Brussels, after last month lowering the growth figure for 2024 by three tenths, to 1.7%, which makes it very difficult to achieve the expected figure.
The Central Administration accumulates the bulk of the debt
By administration, public debt increased in all between the months of July and September of this year. Thus, the debt of the Central Administration rose in the third quarter to 1,434 billion euros, 5.5% more than a year ago, which represents 99.9% of GDP, compared to 103% the previous year.
For its part, the debt of the autonomous communities grew by 1.6% year-on-year, to 319,924 million euros in the third quarter, equivalent to 22.3% of GDP, compared to 23.9% last year.
In the case of local corporations, their debt stood at 23,255 million in the third quarter of 2023, which represents an increase of 1.9% compared to the same period in 2022. The ratio over GDP was slightly reduced to 1, 6%, compared to 1.7% last year.
Finally, the debt of the Social Security administrations climbed to 106,172 million euros between July and September, with an increase of 7% in one year. The GDP ratio drops slightly from 7.5% a year ago to 7.4% in 2023. The increase in absolute values is due to the loans granted by the State to the General Treasury of Social Security to finance a significant part of its budget imbalance.
According to Government estimates, the debt of the Central Administration and Social Security will be 83.2% of GDP in 2024, to fall to 83% in 2025 and reach 82.8% in 2026. In the case of the autonomous communities , it is estimated that the debt will be 21.7% in 2024, 21% in 2025 and 20.3% in 2026, while that of local entities will be 1.4% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025 and in 2026.
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