2023-06-03 01:56:02
The registered unemployment and affiliation data for the month of May disclosed yesterday by the Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migrations are, on a first and superficial reading, remarkable. He number of people registered in employment offices fell last month by 49,260 peopleuntil leaving the total number of unemployed at 2.739.110 personasthe lowest figure in a month of May since 2008. Regarding job creation, the number of Social Security affiliates increased by 200,411which placed the total number of contributors at an average of 20.815.399 personasthe highest figure on record.
But both one piece of data and the other contain more worrying trends than the mere total numbers. When it comes to job creation, the reality is that the hours worked by these 20.8 million affiliates are below those done with a smaller number of workers in 2019. The hours worked by all employed persons stood at 8,554,873.9 in the first quarter of 2019 with 19.8 million workers. However, in the first quarter of 2023, with 20.6 affiliates, very close to the current 20.8 million; They were 8,476,989.8, according to seasonal and calendar adjusted data from the Active Population Survey (EPA) for the first quarter, the most recent data available. In other words, each employee now works fewer hours and therefore has less income. “Government ministers said that” employment is not created, it is cut up “when the hours worked dropped slightly,” he recalls somewhat ironically. Daniel Lacalle, PhD in Economics and Chief Economist at Tressis. The data for April – those for May are not yet available – state that the average duration of the contracts was 45.33 days, compared to 54.48 in the same month of 2022.
He rate of job creation May also arouses misgivings among experts. From the human resources company Randstad remember that this is usually the month with the best behavior since it is at the gates of the summer tourist campaign, so important for the Spanish labor market and that so much employment, especially temporary, is generated. However, remember that the slightly more than 200,000 jobs that were created are the lowest figure since 2016 -with the sole exception of 2020, a completely exceptional year due to the coronavirus-. The same thing happens, they recall, with the drop in unemployment, the magnitude of which has been “frankly disappointing,” according to Randstad. “In the last decade, the average decrease in the months of May was 93,000 people, practically double the 49,000 unemployed of this last month,” they warn.
«The usual thing is that employment grows in May more than in April and that unemployment falls in May more than in the previous month. That rule was not met this time, which suggests a weakening of the strong trend of the previous months,” agrees Randstad. Javier Blasco, director of the Adecco Group Institute.
Bad tendencies also speak of the data of hiringaccording to him Study Office of the USO Union. “If hiring is an indicator of economic activity, it tells us that it is slowing down and that it is already affecting employment,” he warns in an analysis of the data released yesterday. The number of contracts registered in May was 1,412,061. It represents a decrease of 228,534 (-13.93%) on the same month of 2022. For its part, the accumulated contracting in the first five months was 6,170,023, which means 1,632,895 fewer contracts (-20.93%) than in the same period of the previous year.
The union denounces, in addition, that more than 44,899 people signed more than one permanent contract last monthsomething that, in his opinion, is a confirmation that “job rotation has reached indefinite hiring, which is ceasing to be synonymous with having and maintaining stable employment,” as he warns.
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