The Likud bloc welcomed this week “that we lived and lived and reached this time”, with the approval of the Knesset dispersal law in a preliminary reading, but a poll by the Panels Politics Institute led by Menachem Lazar for “Maariv-Weekend” shows that the celebrations were perhaps too early, as the poll indicates equality between blocs: draw 57 seats.
This is the distribution of seats according to the survey, and in the brackets for the distribution of seats in a previous survey: the Likud led by Netanyahu 34 (36), Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid 21 (20), Religious Zionism 9 (10), Blue and White 8 (8), Torah Judaism, which lost In the previous survey, Mandate in favor of Ben Gvir, 7 (6), Labor 7 (7), Shas 7 (7), the joint list 6 (6) and Yisrael Beiteinu 5 (5).
The right, led by Naftali Bennett, who lost Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s crown, recorded an impressive drop from 7 seats in the previous poll to only 4, close to the blocking percentage. Meretz 4 (0) can draw some encouragement from the fact that it has re-emerged on the seat map, but it is still dangerously close to the blocking percentage, as is new hope led by Saar 4 (4) and RAAM 4 (4), despite the stability in the polls.
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The emerging picture of the blocs is a 57 draw, an increase of 2 seats for the coalition and a decrease of 2 seats for the opposition, with the joint in the middle with 6 seats. A political “dead look” that prevents the formation of a government and is an introduction to the sixth election.
A number of parties are losing votes in the current poll compared to the previous one, which was held on June 20, immediately after Bennett and Lapid’s announcement of the intention to dissolve the Knesset and go to the polls. Right loses 3 seats; The Likud loses 2 seats and religious Zionism loses one seat. Other parties are strengthening in the current survey: Meretz passes the blocking percentage (compared to 2.7% in the last survey); There is a future and Torah Judaism is each strengthened in the mandate.
Most of the fluctuations are due to a redistribution of votes in light of Meretz’s transition. Still, there is a vote movement to the right of the Likud and religious Zionism. By the way, a quarter of right-wing voters do not know who they will vote for this time. There is also a movement of votes from the Likud for religious Zionism and from religious Zionism to Torah Judaism. The end result of the seats is a combination of vote transitions and Meretz’s entry into the table of seats.
The parties whose voters are most confident in deciding who to vote for are Torah Judaism, Shas and the Likud. The parties with the most “crisp” vote are the right, Yisrael Beiteinu, Labor and New Hope.
Looking at the averages of the blocs, there seems to be a clear difference between 73% absolute confidence of the voters of the opposition parties compared to only 38% of the voters of the current coalition parties. Among Arab party voters, the absolute confidence percentage is 50%. The overall undecided percentage stands at 13.1% in the current survey.
727 respondents participated in the survey, who constitute a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over. Data collection is done through the Panel4All web panel. The survey was conducted on June 22-23, 2022. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 3.3%.