These 11 days which separate Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen from the second round of the presidential election promise to be intense. It is written that the match will not be the same as in 2017: the face to face between the candidate of La République en Marche and that of the National Rally will be close, even if the outgoing president remains at this favorite stage. Our first daily survey between the two rounds, carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, with our partner Franceinfo, confirms this. Here’s what to remember.
A closer match than five years ago. The first round, which allowed Emmanuel to obtain a higher score than in 2017 and to grant himself a cushion of a lead of just under five points over Marine Le Pen, would he have breathed new life into the Past President ? It is far too early to say, as the campaign and the debate in the second round could prove to be decisive. Still, Emmanuel Macron is credited with 55% of the voting intentions, against 45% for his rival (with a margin of error of 3.2 points). This is the first time since March 30 that such a discrepancy has not been observed since the start of our daily survey on March 12.
What voice reports? Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s score did not escape either of the two finalists, who are both trying to provide guarantees to his electorate to convince them to give them their votes. But those who cast an insubordinate vote in the first round seem to be the most numerous to refuse to make a choice between the two finalists: 37% think they will block Marine Le Pen by voting Macron and 18% would prefer to turn to the RN candidate. The rest is undecided.
59% of Yannick Jadot’s voters, who expressly called last Sunday to vote for Emmanuel Macron, share their candidate’s call for a vote. The trend is less obvious among voters of Valérie Pécresse, since 47% of them would turn to Emmanuel Macron, against 25% for Marine Le Pen. No surprise in the electorate of Éric Zemmour, who should turn massively to Marine Le Pen (81% postponement).
The undecided of the white vote. Abstention and the blank vote could quickly become one of the keys to this second round. If the two candidates can pride themselves on benefiting from an electoral base that is very sure of their choice, they can still hope to convince supporters of a blank vote or abstention. Nearly 40% of them indicate that their choice is still likely to change between now and April 24.
No shortness of breath assumed on participation. It’s been twenty years since turnout was so low in the first round. 73.7% of French people registered on the electoral lists went to vote last Sunday. In the second round, our rolling of the day seems to testify to a form of continuity in the intentions to vote, since 73% of voters on average indicate that they would vote if the ballot took place this Wednesday. In the second round of the 2017 presidential election, 74.56% of registered voters went to vote.
Methodology: survey carried out online over the last three days, on a sample of more than 1,500 people questioned by Internet. The results presented show the accumulation of the interviews carried out over the last three days. This barometer is a day-to-day monitoring of voting intentions and opinion. Quota method. Source: Ipsos-Sopra Steria for Le Parisien-Aujourd’hui en France and Franceinfo.