2023 NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Strategies Revealed
Welcome to our 2023 NFL survivor pool picks and advice. NFL Survivor pools are gaining in popularity and we’re still figuring out the optimal strategy for how to navigate them. If you need evidence of that, last year’s absolute carnage that saw many survivor pools end before Christmas is enough to remind everyone how difficult winning a survivor pool can be, even if you do your research.
At its core, survivor pools seem simple. Just pick a team to win every week! There are 16 possible correct answers in the weeks without byes and there are at least 12 games to choose from even on the mega-bye weeks where six teams are on byes.
The Athletic betting and fantasy writers Adam Gretz and Renee Miller will guide everyone through the 2023 NFL season and make their picks, analyze the teams, and go in-depth on strategy for winning.
In the last couple of weeks, Adam looked at some basic strategies and how NFL survivor pools work and Renee went in-depth using her background as a professor of neuroscience to look at how biases can affect our selections and our chances of winning a survivor pool.
Next week, we’ll walk through some early-season strategy for Weeks 2-4 assuming that we can all survive Week 1. It’s good for us to get a look at the teams, how the coaches will use players, and how the rookie quarterbacks do in Week 1.
Week 1 Strategy
Renee Miller: As noted in my preview piece earlier in the week, I play it safe in Week 1. The main thing is to advance, regardless of your pool size. Trust me, there will be some show-offs trying to advance with a one percent team, especially in the larger leagues. Let them! You have all season to show how smart you are…but only if you’re not eliminated this week.
Adam Gretz: I’m with you, Renee. Let’s just get through Week 1 and then start looking at some more advanced strategies and which teams we may want to use. There are a couple of good picks out there, including the Washington Commanders going up against the Arizona Cardinals. This may be the biggest favorite that Washington is all season and you can save some better teams by using the Commanders this week. That being said, they’re the second most popular team being used.
Week 1 Chalk Picks
Adam Gretz: If the goal for the first week is simply surviving and getting through to the next week then there probably is not a better choice this week than the Baltimore Ravens. They are double-digit favorites over a Houston Texans team that is not only one of the worst rosters in football, but is also starting a rookie quarterback in his NFL debut (C.J. Stroud). The Ravens not only have the highest win probability for the week (80 percent), they are also the most popular pick (around 33 percent). They should – emphasis on should – be good enough to get you to the next week.
The only problem with picking the Ravens is that they still have some pretty good future value and you might want to hold onto them for a week when your league has thinned out a little more. That Week 3 game against Indianapolis (also against a bad team with a rookie quarterback and no Jonathan Taylor) is also intriguing for them, as is Week 8 against Arizona when your league might really be thinned out.
If you wanted to save the Ravens for a later date, Washington is probably the next safest pick here given that they are playing the aforementioned Arizona team that, quite frankly, may not win many games at all this season. The Commanders also do not have much future value as they are favored only in a handful of games the rest of the way. You are never going to get a better time to pick the Commanders and Sam Howell.
Renee Miller: My favorite pick for a safe start to the season is Minnesota (70.1 percent win probability, picked by less than 15 percent of users). The Vikings are six-point home favorites over the Buccaneers and are widely expected to be one of the highest-scoring teams in the league.
Meanwhile, the Bucs have one of the few implied team totals under 20 for Week 1 (19.25 points). Tampa has two aging star receivers mixed with untested youth at TE and RB. I don’t see Baker Mayfield being the glue that holds this offense together. A third reason to like the Vikings in Week 1 is their upcoming schedule. When it comes to looking forward, you should be mostly concerned with the next six or so games and Minnesota has some tough matchups in there (Eagles, Chargers, Chiefs, 49ers, perhaps even Bears and Packers could give them a run on the road). You might consider saving the Vikings for Week 4 at Carolina, but I have another option circled for that eventuality (spoiler: it’s San Francisco vs. Arizona).
Week 1 Contrarian Picks
Miller: If you must go against the grain in Week 1, my contrarian pick would be Seattle. The Seahawks are 5.5-point favorites at home over the LA Rams and come with a 68.3 percent win probability with the same implied team total as Minnesota: 25.75 points. As of this writing, only 3.1 percent of players are picking them in survivor pools. Cooper Kupp is not looking likely to suit up for this game and he is by far the brightest light in this Rams offense. On the other side of the field, the Seahawks have one of the deepest talent wells at both WR and RB and will return an offense that finished as the 10th-highest scoring last season.
Gretz: A really contrarian pick might be the Atlanta Falcons against Carolina. The Falcons have a 63 percent win probability (which is very much in the same ballpark as Seattle’s 67 percent against the Rams), only a 1.6 percent pick rate, and has marginal future value. Do you trust Desmond Ridder this early in the season? Well, if you don’t now you’re probably not going to trust him any later against a better team. Atlanta is going against a rookie (Bryce Young), at home, in his first start with few weapons around him.