Iran Expecting Preemptive Strike from Israel, Expert Says
August 9, 2024, 6:21 PM
Iran is anticipating a preemptive strike from Israel as a justification for its own attack, according to Ilya Kusa, an international politics expert at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future think tank. After the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Iran allegedly transmitted information to Hungary regarding its intention to strike Israel. However, Tehran plans to alert the West in advance about the timing and location of the impending attack, potentially mitigating its impact.
The expected scale of the attack is larger than the April incident when Iran and Israel clashed. Motivated by the assassination of Haniyeh under Iranian protection, Iran seeks to demonstrate its strength. The expert suggests potential involvement of Iranian proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and the Gaza Strip.
In this scenario, Iran hopes to provoke Israeli preemptive strikes, allowing them to subsequently claim self-defense against Israeli aggression.
The current situation in the Middle East poses significant challenges for the international community. Russia can exploit the chaos to its advantage, diverting Western attention and bolstering its position. While instability in the region poses risks for Russia, particularly their diminished influence in Syria in the event of a major conflict, it does not pose an immediate existential threat.
The expert emphasizes that the more chaos in the region, the more the West will be compelled to disperse its resources across multiple fronts, aligning perfectly with Russia’s interests.
Neither side in the conflict appears eager for total war, recognizing the high risks, economic consequences, and potential for economic damage. The focus now is on de-escalation and preserving face, leading to heightened media propaganda while the actual situation may be less severe than portrayed.