2024-08-14 13:28:02
Iran has yet to decide on a response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which came two weeks after the explosion at an IRGC guesthouse. As a Ynet analysis points out, one thing is certain: If Tehran attacks Israel, Iraq will be involved in this process. Iranian missiles or drones will fly through Iraqi skies, as they did in April. Then the skies were filled with Iranian drones and missiles, which was widely reported on social media.
Iraq did not intercept any missiles or drones from Iran in April. They allowed them to fly over their airspace in a western direction. After the attack, missile debris was found in Iraq, and an Iranian drone was spotted in the holy city of Najaf, according to Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hadath TV. Baghdad is very concerned about an Iranian response aimed at Israel, since Iraq is the “only missile corridor,” according to Saudi Arabia’s Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper.
Ynet notes that the situation in Iraq is complex. Pro-Iranian militias, which view themselves as an additional front to support the Palestinians in Gaza, are attacking American targets in the region, considering the US an ally of Israel in the conflict in Gaza and a force that must be expelled from Iraq.
These militias also directly attack Israel. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a pro-Iranian militia group, has claimed responsibility for numerous attacks on Israel during the war. More recently, they have been working with the Houthis in Yemen. Early in the conflict, Iraqi leaders were divided over attacks on American bases, with some demanding government participation or tolerance, while others opposed and feared attacks.
There are differences between Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and pro-Iranian militias. The militias want to expel the US-led coalition from Iraq. Al-Sudani has tried to maintain ties with both the pro-Iranian militias and Iran, as well as the US. In recent weeks, the militias have resumed attacks on US targets after a long hiatus, awaiting a response from the Iraqi government to demands for the withdrawal of US troops. Having received no clear answer, some militias have decided to resume operations, although not on the same scale as in the early months of the war.
According to Asharq Al-Awsat, in the event of an Iranian attack, the missiles would either fly over Iraq or be launched from Iraqi territory by pro-Iranian militias. Iraq would inevitably be drawn into this process.
A source close to Iraq’s ruling coalition told the newspaper: “Because of its proximity to Iran and relative proximity to Israel, Iraq will suffer the most from a war. Its ability to contain or avoid the consequences is virtually non-existent.”
The source added: “Iraqi lands will be open if war breaks out, as was seen in April when all the missiles crossed Iraqi airspace.” He noted that whether the missiles fly over Iraq or are launched from Iraqi territory, the government will have a hard time dealing with the situation as it has no control over the militias’ decisions and cannot restrain them.
The source also fears that the militias could launch larger attacks, which could prompt Israel to strike key targets in Iraq, such as the Basra ports, similar to Israel’s attack on the port of Hudaydah in Yemen.
Another interlocutor, a former diplomat, said Iraq plays a neutral role in regional conflicts between Israel and its neighbors, especially Iran. He added: “Iraq is effectively a neutral state in state policy. Declarations of war and peace are up to parliament. The Iraqi government is monitoring the situation, trying to prevent militias and Iran from being drawn into a major or minor war.”
Earlier, Cursor wrote that terrorists in Iraq threatened the United States.