2024-08-26 09:10:59
In the coming days, Ukraine is expecting significant holidays: on August 23, the country will celebrate National Flag Day, and on August 24, the 33rd anniversary of independence.
In the context of war, these dates take on special significance, and analysts predict possible risks associated with Russia’s actions on these days. According to the analytical material of the Telegram channel “OKO Analytical”, there is a possibility of massive attacks, but experts assess this risk as moderately low.
Analysts emphasize that one cannot count on the rapid exhaustion of Russian missile arsenals and one should not expect an immediate improvement in the situation. At the same time, they avoid panic, stating that a large-scale destruction of Ukraine is unlikely. However, despite these forecasts, “OKO Analytical” strongly recommends not to ignore air raid sirens and, if necessary, to take cover, especially after the recent events in the Kursk region, which could provoke retaliatory actions from Russia.
According to experts, the risk of massive attacks similar to the autumn strikes of 2022 in the coming days is not so great. Although such a scenario cannot be completely ruled out, the likelihood of a large-scale shelling on August 23 or 24 seems unlikely to them. Analysts note that no “apocalypse” is likely to occur in these days.
One factor that reduces the likelihood of a massive strike on August 23 is the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Kyiv. According to OKO Analytical, the likelihood that Russia will decide to launch a major attack during the stay of a high-ranking guest from a friendly country is extremely low. India is an important partner for Russia, and Moscow depends on energy supplies to this country. Launching a strike on Ukraine during Modi’s visit could damage relations with India, which makes such a move unlikely.
The situation is more complicated on August 24, when Ukraine celebrates Independence Day. Given the symbolism of this date, a massive strike on important objects could be a significant step for Russia. However, analysts recall that in previous years – neither in 2022 nor in 2023 – Russia has not carried out large-scale attacks on this day.
Could Russia change its strategy in 2024? Quite possibly, but it could also continue to ignore symbolic dates.
“OKO Analytical” also notes that Russia often does not tie itself to any specific dates for carrying out major strikes. Examples of past attacks, such as October 10 and November 15, 2022, as well as December 29, 2023, confirm that Moscow can choose any random day to carry out a massive missile attack. In this context, military actions are subject primarily to the logic of war, and not calendar dates.
Analysts sum up their forecasts, once again emphasizing the importance of paying close attention to concerns, regardless of whether it is a holiday or a weekday.
The likelihood of major attacks on August 23-24, based on their analysis, does not seem high, but such attacks could happen at any time, regardless of the importance of the date.
It should be noted that after the start of the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive in the Kursk region, the media considered Putin’s possible responses.
Earlier, “Kursor” wrote that Russia began Operation “Revenge” in the Kursk region.
Putin recently promised a tough response to Ukraine’s attack on the Kursk region.