2024-09-15 08:08:14
Lt. Col. Amit Yagor, an IDF officer, notes in his analysis of the situation in the Gaza Strip that the war at this stage is a war of attrition for both sides. In his opinion, despite the expectations of the Axis of Resistance (including Hamas and Hezbollah) that Israel would not be able to withstand a protracted war, it is the emissaries of these groups that have begun to bear the costs that are more characteristic of smaller, less stable adversaries than a developed country like Israel.
“Maariv” writes about this.
Yagor names the upcoming US elections as the main strategic factor that will determine the further course of events. All key participants in the conflict, including Israel, are awaiting their results in order to adjust their actions. In the current conflict, Israel demonstrates resilience and immunity to external influences, but, as Yagor emphasizes, despite the approaching fulfillment of one of the goals, other tasks remain in the wings. Israel relies almost exclusively on military efforts, avoiding the active use of legal, economic and diplomatic instruments, which makes its strategy reactive and limited.
Regarding the hostages taken by Hamas terrorists, Yagor emphasizes that there are no active negotiations underway at this stage. He believes that the hostages serve as a kind of “insurance” for Hamas terrorist leaders such as Yahya Sinwar, ensuring their safety. According to the lieutenant colonel, the release of the hostages is possible either as part of a “humanitarian” deal in exchange for the prisoners, or after the end of the war.
Yagor also notes that Hamas’ military potential has already been significantly depleted, but the terrorists’ main goal is not a military victory, but maintaining control and sovereignty over Gaza, even if it happens through a puppet government. Israel continues its strategy of hunting Hamas leaders, destroying tunnels and possibly taking control of the distribution of humanitarian aid.
As for Hezbollah, Yagor notes that the organization faces a strategic dilemma. It is not interested in all-out war, especially given the internal unrest in Lebanon and the removal of key leaders such as Fuad Shakar. Israel, for its part, has been systematically attacking Hezbollah infrastructure, including rocket launchers and ammunition depots, but has so far avoided large-scale action against the terrorists’ civilian-political core.
Analyzing the situation in Iran, Yagor emphasizes that the country is focused on developing its nuclear program and strengthening relations with Russia, but is experiencing difficulties due to international sanctions. Israel, according to Yagor, continues to contain Iran, trying to postpone direct confrontation until after the US elections.
Syria, according to Yagor, is slowly turning into an Iranian protectorate, with the active participation of Iranian military and militias on its territory. Israel continues to attack military development centers in Syria, trying to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah.
In Yemen, Lt. Col. Yagor notes that the Houthis, despite a number of unsuccessful attacks on Israel, continue to pose a threat to the global economy by blocking strategic waterways. In response to this threat, the U.S. and Europe are focusing on protecting shipping in the Red Sea, although Yagor believes an offensive strategy could be more effective in combating the Houthis.
Thus, according to Lt. Col. Amit Yagor, the US elections will be a determining factor in the future strategy of Israel and its opponents, including Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthis. All parties to the conflict are in a state of anticipation, preparing to adjust their actions depending on the outcome of the vote.
Earlier, Cursor reported that Israel is ready to save Sinwar’s life, but there is a nuance.
Israel said it had given Sinwar a “good offer” for a ceasefire deal in the Gaza Strip.