2024-09-27 19:09:26
The IDF is faced with the task of completely destroying the military power of Hezbollah so that the residents of the northern regions of Israel can return to their homes. However, despite significant blows to Hezbollah, a full-scale war has not yet begun. Military expert David Sharp explains why Israel is holding back from wider action and what the developments may be like.
Has the Third Lebanon War begun?
Sharp notes that we can talk about the beginning of the war on October 8 last year, when Hezbollah supported Hamas and attacked Israel. However, there is no full-scale war yet, since all restrictions have not yet been lifted. In recent days, the IDF has intensified strikes against Hezbollah, which has led to an increase in the level of conflict, but Israel has not yet launched a full-fledged operation. Sharp explains that the reason for this is the large potential losses and pressure from the United States, which is trying to avoid escalation.
Temporary strategy or inevitability?
According to the expert, the current air strikes are not the final solution. Political agreements with Hezbollah are theoretically possible, but Hezbollah shows no desire for peace. Israel, in turn, does not intend to succumb to fictitious agreements, since such actions will not lead to strategic success and will not eliminate the threat of a new war.
Israel hopes to change the rules of the game and create intimidation so that terrorists do not even think about attacking. This is only possible with significant changes, which in the future could lead to a big war.
Political and military dilemmas
Israel finds itself in a difficult position: it needs to be decisive in the eyes of its Middle Eastern neighbors and moderate in the eyes of its Western allies. The country cannot afford to appear weak, as this could undermine confidence in the army and the state. Over the past 15 years, Israel has often demonstrated weakness towards Hezbollah, allowing it to build up its military power and attack Israel with the confidence of impunity.
Pager operation and its significance
Recently, Israel or some unknown forces carried out a unique operation by blowing up pagers used by Hezbollah, which led to chaos and serious casualties among the militants. This operation was a new milestone, demonstrating significant technological capabilities, but without immediate, large-scale action, its effect may wane. Sharpe believes that Israel needs to use this moment to attack, otherwise the enemy will recover and continue its aggression.
The future of relations with Hezbollah
Israel is at a crossroads: the choice between fictitious agreements and full-scale war. Israeli leaders and citizens understand that a return to previous conditions is not satisfactory, and the country is committed to fundamental changes that can only be achieved through decisive action. The question is how long Israel can balance between the desire to avoid heavy losses and the need to deal a significant blow to Hezbollah.
Earlier, Kursor reported that the IDF strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon were assessed in the United States.
During the strikes of the Defense Forces, Hezbollah’s firepower dealt crushing blows, but the conflict is not over, so the United States is trying to seek a diplomatic path.