The NFL Playoff Picture Shapes Up Heading into Week 9
Ralph Vacchiano
NFL Reporter
Though the NFL season isn’t even halfway completed, the playoff picture is beginning to clarify. At the top of the standings, the Chiefs, Texans, Lions, Steelers, Bills, and the surprising Commanders are solidifying their postseason aspirations. The rest of the teams are currently jockeying for position, leading to a thrilling playoff scramble expected in the latter half of the season.
Here’s a look at the current NFL playoff picture, including team playoff probabilities via NFL Next Gen Stats, following Week 8:
2024 NFL Playoff Picture
NFC
1. Detroit Lions (6-1)
The Lions are arguably the most complete team in the NFL this season. After an impressive victory against the Tennessee Titans, their dynamic duo of running backs—David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs—coupled with Jared Goff’s near-flawless performance, has established them as a formidable opponent, averaging 43 points over their last four games.
Playoff probability: 94%
2. Washington Commanders (6-2)
Quarterback Jayden Daniels pulled off a remarkable Hail Mary to Noah Brown that secured a thrilling comeback win. His performance overshadowed that of Caleb Williams, and with a strong all-around team, the Commanders are poised to compete effectively for a playoff spot.
Playoff probability: 71%
3. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
Having turned their season around with two narrow victories over the Buccaneers, they will need to capitalize on this momentum. Kirk Cousins’ impressive numbers against Tampa underscore their potential if the offense can consistently perform well.
Playoff probability: 77%
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-4)
Kyler Murray’s resurgence, culminating in a 307-yard performance against Miami, signals a potential turning point. However, defense remains a concern as they attempt to stay competitive in their division.
Playoff probability: 32%
5. Green Bay Packers (6-2)
Malik Willis led Green Bay to a victory following an injury to Jordan Love. The team anxiously awaits further updates on Love’s condition, which could dictate their playoff aspirations.
Playoff probability: 68%
6. Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
After starting strong, losing two consecutive games raises concerns, reminiscent of their previous 5-0 season in 2016. However, upcoming schedule challenges may favor them moving forward.
Playoff probability: 83%
7. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
After a shaky start, they have regained form, with a notable improvement in their defense and a resurgence of quarterback Jalen Hurts. Their strong ground game, paired with Saquon Barkley, keeps them competitive.
Playoff probability: 77%
Teams on the Outside Looking In
The Chicago Bears (4-3) fell victim to a heartbreaking defeat against the Commanders, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) face challenges with injuries to key players.
San Francisco 49ers (4-4) remain competitive despite injuries, and the Seattle Seahawks (4-4) face struggles after a rough stretch of games.
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)
The Chiefs are undefeated yet appear to be not hitting their peak form. They still possess the talent of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, making them clear frontrunners in the playoff race.
Playoff probability: 99%
2. Houston Texans (6-2)
Maintaining their momentum following a victory over the Colts, the Texans boast a well-rounded team with a potent offense. C.J. Stroud continues to perform exceptionally well.
Playoff probability: 97%
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Mike Tomlin’s coaching decisions have revitalized the Steelers, showing remarkable depth at quarterback as they ride a three-game winning streak.
Playoff probability: 90%
4. Buffalo Bills (6-2)
The Bills are maintaining their status as a powerful team led by MVP-caliber quarterback Josh Allen. Their upcoming game against the Chiefs will be a pivotal moment in their season.
Playoff probability: 96%
5. Denver Broncos (5-3)
Sean Payton’s commendable coaching has turned the Broncos’ season around as they look towards tougher future matchups.
Playoff probability: 63%
6. Baltimore Ravens (5-3)
Despite a setback against the Browns, the Ravens remain a top team with earlier winning streaks indicating their potential strength.
Playoff probability: 87%
7. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
The Chargers need to ramp up the offensive production if they wish to secure a playoff berth after a narrow victory against the Saints.
Playoff probability: 68%
Teams on the Outside Looking In
The Indianapolis Colts (4-4) face challenges within the AFC South, while the Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) are grappling with offensive struggles, failing to live up to expectations.