NCAA Tournament Projections: Lunardi Outlines Multiple Bracket Scenarios for 2021
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ESPN’s bracketology efforts, led by Joe Lunardi, are meticulously focused on forecasting the NCAA tournament field as closely as possible to the selections made by the NCAA Division I basketball committee in March.
The annual anticipation surrounding “March Madness” hinges on a complex selection process. Lunardi’s projections leverage the same critical data points utilized by the committee, including strength of schedule and various season-long performance indicators like the NET ranking and team-sheet data mirroring information available to the NCAA. For a comprehensive understanding of the NCAA’s selection criteria, readers are encouraged to visit the NCAA’s official website.
The Standard 68-Team Bracket
Since 2011, the 68-team bracket has been the established format for the NCAA tournament. However, the 2021 tournament is anticipated to feature key deviations from previous years.
A primary adjustment stems from the decision to host the entire tournament at a single location. This logistical change eliminates the traditional consideration of geographical proximity when determining seeding. Furthermore, the number of automatic qualifiers is expected to decrease by at least one, due to the Ivy League’s cancellation of the 2020-21 basketball season, resulting in 31 automatic entries.
A Condensed 48-Team Bracket
Projections also explore a scenario involving a reduced field of 48 teams. This condensed selection process would eliminate 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers, though the latter would still receive their allocated revenue share.
In this model, the top four seeds in each region would receive a first-round bye. Four first-round games per region – pitting the 5th seed against the 12th, the 6th against the 11th, the 7th against the 10th, and the 8th against the 9th – would be played on the higher seed’s home court, but without fans in attendance. To minimize travel, first-round pairings would prioritize geographical alignment. This reduction would limit competition at the central site to just 32 teams. A key requirement for at-large consideration in this scenario is adherence to the “Lunardi Rule,” mandating a minimum .500 conference record for all participants.
A Streamlined 16-Team Bracket
An even more streamlined projection envisions a 16-team bracket, where the committee directly selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. This format would eliminate automatic qualifiers entirely, although non-competing conference champions would still receive their designated revenue unit.
To ensure national representation, conference participation would be capped at four teams. Additionally, no single region would feature more than one team from the same conference.
These varied bracket projections offer a glimpse into the potential complexities and adjustments facing the NCAA tournament selection committee as they navigate the unique challenges of the 2021 season.
