28 keys to 28-M: municipal and regional elections

by time news

2023-05-28 04:03:54

The municipal and regional elections this Sunday are going to become a preview of the general ones since both Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo have been fully involved.

1. Pedro Sanchez. The President of the Government has taken on the challenge of facing the elections as a referendum on his figure: that is why he has become fully involved despite the reluctance shown by some barons, participating in rallies and making numerous important announcements. The results that the PSOE reaps, both for better and for worse, will affect it.

2. Alberto Núñez Feijóo. It is his second electoral date since he presided over the PP, after the great success of Andalusia, and he needs a push to clear up the doubts that the left seeks to install about an alleged wear and tear. At the moment, the president of the popular continues to lead all the polls and, even the CIS, he already detects an improvement with respect to the PSOE.

3. Isabel Diaz Ayuso. If there is a third proper name in this electoral appointment, it is that of Isabel Díaz Ayuso. The president of the Community of Madrid is caressing the absolute majority and, if she succeeds, it would give a coup de effect: it would allow her to further consolidate her power within the PP and she would manage to project the popular ones as the useful vote against Vox in the face of the generals.

4. Most voted lists. It is very probable that the PP will reap more victories than the PSOE, but some of them will not serve to achieve power because the left bloc will add more seats. However, the Socialists can also be seen in this situation in two vital territories: Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura. Feijóo has questioned both Emiliano García-Page and Guillermo Fernández Vara to intercede and ask that the list with the most votes be allowed to govern.

5. PP-Vox coalitions. The left and Europe will look closely at the post-electoral pacts, to see if the PP gives in and agrees with Vox. In the popular ranks they prefer to avoid Santiago Abascal’s party and intend to go to the PSOE so that the list with the most votes is allowed to govern and prevent the extremes from conditioning.

6. Territorial implementation of Vox?. It remains to be seen if Vox ends up gaining territorial weight, key to building muscle and sustaining the party, or it remains as it has been until now, with practically no mayoralties or regional power. The last three regional appointments have left a bittersweet taste for those of Abascal: fiasco in Andalusia and the Community of Madrid and good results in Castilla y León, although the entry into the government of the Junta has worn them down a lot due to the setbacks they have had .

7. We can. The purple party arrives at its lowest hours since it was born in 2014 and may disappear in two very important autonomies: the Community of Madrid and the Valencian Community. In any case, everything indicates that it will lose seats in the majority of regional parliaments and could drag the left-wing bloc to lose governments.

8. Yolanda Diaz. The Vice President of the Government is not going to release her acronym in this electoral call, but she has been partially involved. Ada Colau is the one with whom she has been photographed the most, although the results do not seem to influence her much either because, at this time, it seems difficult for the voter to link Díaz with the regional candidacies. Of course, she will be waiting to see how Podemos turns out to have a position of strength in the negotiation for the generals.

9. There is Colau. The current mayor of Barcelona is closer than ever to losing power in Barcelona. It is still unknown what her future will be after 28-M if she does not revalidate the mayoralty because it becomes difficult for her to remain as a councilor in the City Council.

10. Citizens. The orange party is torn between survival and death. In the ranks of the Arrimadas party, they hope to retain representation in town halls and autonomies with which to face the process of reorganization of the formation, with a view to the general elections.

11. Independentism. Separatism has already forgotten about “plebiscites” in electoral processes and, on this occasion, is waging an internal battle for hegemony. Both JxCat and ERC are going to have problems and it seems difficult for them to claim any success.

12. Barcelona Belt. The mostly Spanish-speaking metropolitan area of ​​the Catalan capital has always been dominated by the PSC and ERC wants to start penetrating its ambition to broaden its electoral base. All eyes will be on Gabriel Rufián and Santa Coloma de Gramenet, which will serve as a thermometer to measure the result of ERC’s commitment.

13. ERC. The Republicans won the last municipal elections, by number of councilors conquered and by percentage of vote, but the polls suggest that they may lose a lot of support and that will generate doubts in a party doomed to internal battles. The results, in any case, can be read as a blow to Oriol Junqueras, the person in charge of the campaign, or as an amendment to the management of Pere Aragonès, president of the Generalitat.

14. JxCat. The post-convergents, immersed in a reorganization process that seems to have no end due to the weakness in which the party finds itself, bet everything to win Barcelona with Xavier Trias, although that seems complicated according to the polls. In addition, Trias does not even use the initials of the party, a sign of the wear and tear of JxCat, which now seems to already weigh down any candidate.

15.PSC. The Catalan socialists are once again experiencing a good moment after years of crossing the desert and, after winning the regional elections, now they aspire to win the municipal elections as well. They could give a coup if they finally end up conquering the four provincial capitals, something highly possible.

16. PNV. The Basque nationalists are seeing how their hegemony in the Basque Country may begin to falter before the rise of Bildu, sponsored by Sánchez with all the prominence that he has given him in Madrid. Now they aspire to maintain the three provincial capitals and the three councils.

17. Collect. It is the great acid test for the abertzales facing the regional elections next year: it will serve to measure if they have enough strength to aspire to the presidency of the Basque government and they will try to assault Vitoria and San Sebastián, as well as the Guipuzcoa Provincial Council.

18. Valencian Community. The autonomy governed by Ximo Puig seems key for all the parties because it is the most populated of the 14 in which they vote. Everything is in a span, but the block that wins will have a lot of tailwind facing the generals.

19. Aragon. Javier Lambán caresses the victory against the PP: some polls give him as the winner before the collapse of the PAR and Aragón Existe and that will allow him to resist in power. His resistance could be key to the future of the PSOE, because he is critical of Sánchez and, with that power, he will later have more influence to set the pace in the PSOE.

20. Castile-La Mancha. Page will win for sure, although he needs to revalidate his absolute majority and that is up in the air. If he governs again, he will consolidate the socialist hegemony and also give him even more internal power in the PSOE. The PP has put a lot of effort into trying to break Page.

21. Madrid. The capital of Spain returned to the hands of the PP in 2019 and everything indicates that José Luis Martínez Almeida will maintain the command rod. However, in the block on the left it will be an opportunity for Más Madrid to consolidate its hegemony, ahead of the PSOE.

22. Barcelona. The second city in Spain can turn around and return to the hands of the PSC after twelve years. Jaume Collboni leads the polls and could govern with Colau or with Trias: the course he will seek to give the city will also depend on that.

23. Sevilla. The Andalusian capital is a socialist stronghold and whenever the PP wins it is a sign that the right is strong: the two times that the popular have governed the city, they have reached Moncloa immediately (1995 and 2011).

24. Canarian Coalition. The Canarian nationalists could regain power and unseat the PSOE from Canarian autonomy, after a very troubled legislature, marked by the pandemic and the volcano.

25. PRC. Those of Miguel Ángel Revilla could lose power if the bloc on the right ends up achieving an absolute majority. It is taken for granted that the PP will win in Cantabria, but it remains at the expense of Vox. If the block on the right added up, the PRC could support the popular ones, as a gesture of responsibility, to avoid the influence of those of Abascal.

26. Teruel exists. Many surveys give those of Tomás Guitarte as keys to governance in Aragon, although in recent days a drop has begun to be detected and they could remain at just two deputies, without the capacity to be decisive.

27. Riojan Party. The new party of La Rioja may be key for the PP to regain power without depending on Vox, after the drop in the polls of the current president Concha Andreu. However, it is worth seeing if the popular do so with the regionalist party or with those of Abascal.

28. General elections. With Sánchez and Feijóo involved to the maximum, 28-M is an advance that will have great influence on the end of the legislature and the vote of the generals.

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