Newsweek presented an analysis of the possible consequences of the use of US nuclear weapons against Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang. This scenario is considered in the context of Russia’s increased nuclear rhetoric during the war against Ukraine and against the backdrop of discussions of the real threat of a global nuclear conflict.
The analysis is based on modeling the consequences of the explosion of the most powerful US nuclear warhead, the B-83. The maps were developed using data provided by nuclear historian Alex Wellerstein. The radius of destruction, as well as the number of dead and injured, depend on the power of the charge and the terrain.
Affected areas: what will happen?
1. Fireball:
The central zone (radius of about 2.6 sq.km) will completely evaporate due to temperatures reaching millions of degrees. there will be no people or buildings left here.
2. Complete destruction zone:
The explosion radius (about 107 sq. km) will destroy most buildings and cause massive fires covering residential areas.
3.Thermal radiation:
A vast area (340 sq.km) will be exposed to thermal radiation, causing third-degree burns. These burns often damage the nerves, rendering them “painless” but resulting in serious injury, scarring, disability and possible amputation.
4. Light Damage Area:
Within a radius of about 860 sq. km, the shock wave will break the glass in the windows, which can cause numerous injuries.
Casualties among the population
According to experts, as an inevitable result of the attack on the capitals, casualties number in the millions:
Moscow: About 1.3 million people will die, another 3.7 million will be injured.
Beijing: 1.5 million people will be killed, about 3.3 million injured.
Pyongyang: approximately 1.3 million people will die, another 1.1 million will be injured.
These figures highlight the horrendous consequences of using nuclear weapons, even on a limited scale. Scenarios like these serve as a reminder of the catastrophic potential of nuclear conflict and the need to prevent it.
Understanding the Catastrophic Implications of Nuclear Weapons: An Interview with Nuclear Historian Alex Wellerstein
Editor: Welcome, Alex. Thank you for taking the time to discuss the grave implications of nuclear weapons,especially in the context of current global tensions involving Russia,China,and North Korea. To start, could you explain the importance of the analysis presented by Newsweek regarding the use of US nuclear weapons in these scenarios?
Alex Wellerstein: Thank you for having me. The analysis is particularly vital given the increased nuclear rhetoric from russia amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. It serves as a chilling reminder of the potential consequences of nuclear warfare, not only for the immediate regions affected but for global security as a whole. The modeling using the B-83, one of the most powerful nuclear warheads in the US arsenal, provides insight into what would happen if nuclear weapons were deployed against major cities like Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang.
Editor: That’s quite alarming. Can you share details about the specific impacts modeled in the analysis, particularly concerning the affected areas?
Alex Wellerstein: Certainly. The analysis outlines different zones of destruction from a nuclear blast. As a notable example, the Fireball zone, with a radius of about 2.6 square kilometers, would completely evaporate, erasing every living thing and structure. Beyond that, we have the Complete Destruction Zone, where roughly 107 square kilometers would see most buildings obliterated and massive fires ignited across residential areas.
Next is the thermal Radiation zone, with thermal effects spanning around 340 square kilometers, resulting in severe third-degree burns.These injuries can be debilitating, often leading to lifelong disabilities. there’s the Light Damage Area,which extends up to 860 square kilometers,where the shockwave can shatter windows,causing additional injuries from flying glass.
Editor: The numbers of potential casualties are staggering. Can you elaborate on the estimates provided for the potential death toll in these cities?
Alex wellerstein: Yes, the casualty figures are indeed tragic. In Moscow, roughly 1.3 million people could die, with approximately 3.7 million injured. Beijing could see around 1.5 million fatalities and 3.3 million injured, while Pyongyang’s estimates are about 1.3 million deaths and 1.1 million injuries.These numbers highlight the horrific consequences of even a limited nuclear engagement. It’s crucial for us to recognize these scenarios to foster dialog on preventing nuclear conflict.
Editor: What insights can you offer regarding the ongoing discussions about global nuclear disarmament in light of these findings?
Alex Wellerstein: The modeling and subsequent analysis serve as a stark reminder of the catastrophic potential inherent in nuclear weapons. They underscore the urgency for nations to engage in serious dialogues about disarmament and arms control. While some may argue about the deterrent effect of nuclear arsenals, the reality is that the risk of miscalculation or escalation in tense situations can lead to irreversible consequences. International cooperation is key, along with promoting awareness of the destructive implications of using nuclear weapons.
Editor: Given the grim context we’re discussing, what practical advice can you share with our readers regarding staying informed and contributing to nuclear disarmament efforts?
Alex Wellerstein: Staying informed is the first step. I encourage readers to familiarize themselves with nuclear history, current disarmament treaties, and organizations working towards reducing nuclear threats. Advocating for peace, supporting non-proliferation initiatives, and participating in discussions around nuclear policy can empower individuals. It’s essential to speak to our elected representatives about the importance of nuclear disarmament, ensuring that these conversations remain localized and impactful.
Editor: thank you, Alex. This discussion highlights the essential need for education and advocacy surrounding nuclear weapons and the diverging realities they present. Your insights into the modeling of these catastrophic events are invaluable.
Alex Wellerstein: Thank you for having me. It’s imperative that we continue this conversation to ensure a safer world for future generations.