The Syrian conflict has reached a new stage, calling into question Bashar al-Assad‘s ability to maintain power in the face of a rapid advance by Kurdish forces and the opposition. Against this backdrop,attention is focused on the role of Russia,a key ally of the Syrian regime that previously played a decisive role in stabilizing its position.
According to Bloomberg, the Kremlin is aware of the depth of the crisis, but this time they admit the absence of a clear plan to save the assad regime. Moreover,the Russian embassy in Syria has called on its citizens to leave the country,indicating growing instability.
At the strategic level the situation becomes more complicated. US-backed Kurdish forces have captured 40% of Syria, including key areas of Deir ez-zor. This has blocked an crucial arms supply corridor between Iran and Hezbollah, creating significant geopolitical risks for Iranian-backed forces and their allies.
Meanwhile, Assad’s army is losing control of strategic points. Syrian troops have reportedly retreated to Homs, Buchmal and the Jordanian border crossing at Daraa. The Saudi TV channel Al-Hadat reports an agreement between Assad and the Kurds on the withdrawal of government troops from Deir ez-zor, which allows the Kurds to strengthen their positions.
Earlier,in 2015,Russia stepped up its military involvement in Syria to prevent the collapse of the regime. Today, however, amid economic challenges and weakening global influence, Moscow appears less interested in repeating such intervention.
Sources close to the Kremlin say it is difficult for Russia to justify the significant costs of supporting a regime that has lost control over much of the country.In addition, Assad’s lack of a unified strategy and the constant desertion of Syrian troops only increase skepticism in Moscow.
For Bashar al-assad, the situation is becoming increasingly critical. Whether he can maintain power without decisive support from the Kremlin remains an open question. Meanwhile, Russia is balancing between maintaining its influence in the region and not wanting to get bogged down in another protracted campaign.
Earlier, Kursor wrote that against the backdrop of the successes of the syrian militias in the fight against the Assad regime, Iran turned to Ukraine with a cynical appeal.
What are the potential consequences of Russia’s reduced support for Assad on the syrian conflict?
Q&A with Dr. Laila Ahmad,Middle Eastern Affairs Expert
Editor (Time.news): Dr. Ahmad, thank you for joining us today to discuss the evolving situation in Syria. Recent reports suggest that Bashar al-Assad’s grip on power is increasingly precarious. Can you elaborate on the impact of the advances made by Kurdish forces and the opposition?
Dr. Ahmad: Thank you for having me. Indeed, the situation has reached a critical juncture. The Kurdish forces, backed by the U.S., controlling 40% of Syria, including key territories like Deir ez-zor, have effectively blocked vital arms supply routes linking Iran to Hezbollah. This shift not only affects military logistics but also alters the geopolitical landscape in the region,raising significant risks for iranian-backed groups.
Editor: Its noted that Russia, a longstanding ally of Assad, appears to be less invested in stabilizing his regime compared to previous years. What are the implications of Russia’s current stance?
Dr. Ahmad: Russia’s diminishing interest is a critical factor. Historically, they intervened militarily in 2015 to prevent Assad’s downfall. However, economic pressures and a lack of a solid plan to rescue the Assad regime have led to a notable retreat in their support. The Kremlin’s recent call for its citizens to leave Syria signals an acknowledgment of the instability there. This could mark a significant shift in the balance of power within the region, affecting not only Syria but also the influence of Iran and Hezbollah.
Editor: With Assad’s forces reportedly losing control over strategic points and retreating to locations like Homs and the Jordanian border, what does this mean for the future of his regime?
Dr.Ahmad: The retreat of Assad’s troops is indicative of broader weaknesses within his military establishment. Key agreements, such as the one reported between Assad and Kurdish forces regarding troop withdrawals from Deir ez-zor, underscore the regime’s frailty. Without unified support or a coherent strategy, it remains uncertain how Assad can maintain power. The continuous desertions amongst syrian troops only deepen this crisis, leaving Assad increasingly vulnerable.
Editor: Considering Russia’s hesitation and the advances of various opposition forces, how might the situation influence iran’s strategy in the region?
Dr. Ahmad: Iran is highly likely recalibrating its approach considering recent developments. Faced with potential losses in Syria,it may seek to strengthen its position elsewhere,as seen with their outreach towards Ukraine. This not only reflects desperation but also a need to assert influence across a broader front. The shifting dynamics in Syria could compel Iran to act more aggressively to retain its assets and allies in other conflict zones.
Editor: For our readers, what practical advice would you offer in terms of staying informed about these rapidly changing dynamics in the Middle East?
Dr. Ahmad: I would recommend following multiple credible news sources that cover international affairs, particularly those focused on Middle Eastern politics. Engaging with expert analyses, academic publications, and real-time updates can provide a deeper understanding of the implications of such conflicts. Additionally, participating in discussions on platforms that focus on international relations may enhance one’s outlook on these issues.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Ahmad, for sharing your insights on this complex and evolving crisis. As the situation develops, we will be sure to follow up on the implications of these shifts.
Dr. Ahmad: Thank you for having me. It’s crucial to keep the conversation going on these critical issues.