Military bases, once considered a strategic asset for the Kremlin, may now become a liability following the rise to power of the Islamist group hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which criticizes foreign support for the previous regime.
The publication writes that the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime has jeopardized key Russian military installations in syria, such as the naval base in Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase.
Russia has actively supported Assad as 2015, providing airstrikes against the opposition and consolidating his power. However, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Moscow is making every effort to improve relations with the new government and protect its military facilities.
Russian military bases in Syria are much larger and strategically critically important compared to those of other countries, such as the united States and turkey. The Tartus base, built in 1977, was significantly expanded following Russia’s intervention in the Syrian conflict. Hmeimim Air Base was established in 2015 and a 49-year lease was signed in 2017.
Although the number of Russian troops in Syria has been reduced since the start of the war in Ukraine, some units remain in place. According to military intelligence, Russia also has additional facilities, including air bases in central Syria and sites for S-400 air defense systems.
However, the fall of Assad puts the future of these positions in jeopardy, and the Russian presence in Syria remains in question.
Let us recall that Kursor wrote that the relatives of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad purchased at least 20 luxury apartments in the prestigious business district of Moscow – moscow City. The total value of the property was approximately $40 million. The transactions were carried out from 2013 to 2019 through a network of offshore companies controlled by the family of the Syrian leader.
Kursor also reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to meet with ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during his arrival in Moscow. According to a correspondent for the Qatari TV channel Al-Arabiya, the meeting with assad was instead held by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei lavrov. He allegedly told the Syrian leader: “You have to solve your problems yourself”.
What are the potential consequences of a weakened Russian military presence in the Middle East?
Interview: Understanding the Future of Russian Military Bases in Syria Amid Political Turmoil
Time.news Editor: Today, we have the privilege of speaking with Dr. Elena Mirov, an expert in international relations and military strategy, to discuss the implications of the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-sham and the changing dynamics in Syria. Thank you for joining us, Dr. Mirov.
Dr. Elena Mirov: thank you for having me. It’s a pivotal moment for Syria and international politics.
Time.news Editor: Let’s dive right in. How has the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham influenced the strategic landscape of Russian military bases in Syria?
Dr. Elena Mirov: The emergence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has significantly altered the strategic landscape. Historically, Russian military bases such as the naval base in Tartus and Khmeimim airbase have been viewed as key assets for the Kremlin. However, with the Islamist group now criticizing foreign support for the former Assad regime, these bases may start to resemble liabilities. The dynamics of power are shifting, and this could threaten Russia’s foothold in the region.
Time.news Editor: It seems that the collapse of the Assad regime poses a direct challenge to Russian interests, doesn’t it?
Dr.Elena Mirov: Absolutely. The collapse of Assad’s regime has put a question mark over the future of these crucial military installations.While Russia has been keen on consolidating power in Syria since 2015 through airstrikes and support for Assad, the political vacuum left by Assad’s decline threatens the relevance of such military outposts. If the current political climate continues to favor groups opposed to foreign intervention, we might see increased hostility towards Russian forces.
Time.news Editor: What steps is russia taking to mitigate these risks?
Dr. Elena Mirov: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry peskov has indicated that Moscow is striving to improve relations with the new governing entities in Syria. Their primary objective is to protect military facilities like the prestigious Tartus and Khmeimim bases. However, the practicality of this approach remains uncertain, especially given that the influence of pro-Assad factions is waning.
Time.news Editor: with the reduced number of Russian troops in Syria, what does that mean for the direct military presence of Russia there?
Dr. Elena Mirov: While it’s true that troop numbers have decreased since the Ukraine war began, certain units remain deployed. Moreover, Russia still maintains additional facilities, including air bases across central Syria and positions for S-400 air defense systems. However, should the political situation deteriorate further, the sustainability of these operations might be compromised.
Time.news Editor: What might be the geopolitical implications of these developments for Global Security?
Dr. Elena Mirov: The geopolitical implications are vast. A weakened Russian presence may embolden other local and regional powers, perhaps creating a power vacuum that could lead to further instability. This might also encourage increased American and Turkish military activities, as the United States and Turkey are closely monitoring the situation. If Russia fails to adapt, it may lose influence in not just Syria, but the broader Middle East.
Time.news Editor: And what practical advice would you give to readers who wish to stay informed about these developments?
Dr. Elena mirov: I would advise readers to follow reliable news sources and analyses from experts in Middle Eastern politics. Understanding the motivation behind military strategies and foreign interventions is crucial.It’s also essential to keep an eye on local narratives, as they provide context often overlooked in global discussions. Engaging with literature that tracks military and political dynamics is invaluable for deepening one’s understanding.
Time.news Editor: Thank you for your insights, Dr. mirov. this discussion has truly shed light on the complex landscape of Russian military operations in Syria and the implications of it’s evolving geopolitical environment.
Dr. Elena Mirov: Thank you for the opportunity. It’s essential that we continue to examine these critical issues as they develop.