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The influence of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, once seemingly unshakable, has faded, and Hezbollah, long dominant in Lebanon, has found itself weakened and isolated.

Against this background, the author of the Telegram channel “Middle Eastern Buka” published an interesting translation of an article dedicated to the future of Shiites in Lebanon.

What awaits the Shiites of Lebanon?

“The events of the past week used to exist only in the dreams of Syrian revolutionaries and in the nightmares of the former rulers of the Levant.

The monster, released from its cage, is back on a leash: Hezbollah has been tamed, expelled from Syria, and besieged in Lebanon. The power of Bashar al-Assad is over (even after a week this sounds unreal). Hezbollah and those who gained power through its weapons were defeated; their role as a transnational elite military force is complete. Now they will be happy if they keep their weapons in Lebanon at all.

Throughout my life, I have heard members of my community repeat the same excuses for the skinny tyrant Assad, the same ones made for the local leaders who emerged after Lebanon’s 15-year civil war.

When demonstrations began in Syria in 2011, the same justifications carried over into defense of the Assad regime. Among them were:

“He is good, those around him are bad.”

“These countries deserve rulers like these.”

“There’s something bigger going on than you or me.”

I especially hate the last phrase – it sounds like blasphemy to my secular ears. Often spoken with self-righteousness, it served as an argument in any dispute with ardent supporters of Hezbollah or the Assad regime.

Now these voices have died down. Some even dissociate themselves from the crimes of the regime. Assad, once the center of the “axis of resistance,” has become a former ally. “We were only part of the resistance, and have nothing to do with its atrocities,” Hezbollah supporters now say.

World powers are redrawing the map of interests, and Hezbollah’s place on it is becoming smaller and smaller.

Losers in the latest geopolitical reshuffle, Hezbollah supporters cannot rejoice for the Syrians, see their happiness and hope, which was not there a week ago.

For too long, Lebanon’s Shiites have fed on hate speech. Maybe we just don’t recognize hope even when we see it?

Hassan Nasrallah, the former head of the community, promised his people an eternal war: protecting the distant fronts in Syria and beyond so that the “resistance” could fight Israel.

We know what this led to.

A burning hatred of Israel has shaped the identity of Lebanese Shiites. This made them blind to the suffering of others. Their pain was the only one that mattered. Their battle is the only fair one.

“If you are not with us, you are against us.”

Lebanon’s Shiites share much with the Western left, which supported Assad as a defender against imperialism. For them, as for my fellow countrymen, the peoples of the region could only be ruled by dictators or extremists.

This is internalized Orientalism: democracy is supposedly only for Western white people.

The release of Syrian prisoners from Sednaya evokes memories of the release of Lebanese from the Israeli Khyam prison in 2000. But instead of solidarity, Lebanese Shiites chose arrogance.

Victories in Syria brought pride: “We liberated the south. We won the 2006 war. We are better than you.”

Today, Lebanese Shiites are concerned about the future. They feel defeated by the enemy and have no means to counterattack.

“Now we can’t even get a can of tuna across the border,” they complain in the suburbs of Beirut, the center of Hezbollah.

Lebanon’s Shia community is not a monolith

Despite the general consensus, Lebanon’s Shiites are far from united. Some of us rejoice at the fall of the Assad regime.

We too suffered at the hands of this regime. One of the few times my mother was strict with me was an incident at a Syrian checkpoint during a family trip to Ehden, in the Bekaa Valley. I was 10 years old and asked why Syrian soldiers were in Lebanon. Mother told me to shut up and not ask such questions anymore.

Now imagine being able to walk safely through Hamra in Ras Beirut without fear of Syrian Social Nationalist Party militants on every corner. Imagine being able to get to Damascus and then to Aleppo.

Two weeks ago I couldn’t even think about it.

Our perception has changed, the mental barriers between us and the people with whom we share a common history have collapsed

This is a chance for us to renew ourselves.

Lebanon’s Shiites have historically considered themselves oppressed. They trusted the leaders who lifted them up. But today we feel deceived again. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently said that there is no point in giving in to despair and that defeat is a part of life.

But perhaps we can still forge new tools from the dirt.

Even before October 7, 2023, cracks in Hezbollah’s control over the country began to appear. The group ceased to fulfill its social responsibilities and the scope of its services decreased.

Shiites were among the first to speak out against Lebanon’s sectarian system in 2019. However, Hezbollah’s counter-revolutionary tactics drove them out of protest areas. Community members tried to resist the group’s monopoly on power and representation during elections.

Some Hezbollah members even condemned its support for Assad. They were silenced and expelled.

Perhaps they will find their voice again? Perhaps they will be inspired by the democratic process that may begin in neighboring Syria.

Or maybe not, and those damn Orientalists will be right again.

But perhaps Syria’s current masters will surprise us all by fulfilling our faint hopes for a liberal, secular and democratic Arab state. A model we could adopt to topple our own micro-Assads.

Maybe democracy and fair representation are really for us. Maybe we deserve it. Maybe we are doomed not to corruption, but to hope.

Wait and see.

In the meantime… can’t we all just get along?”

Previously, Kursor reported on how Israel can take advantage of the problems of the Shiite axis.