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Writing for The Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead examines the growing shifts in the global balance of power and predicts that a second term for Donald Trump could lead to a more disruptive and confrontational US foreign policy. Meade notes that the United States is increasing its power against the backdrop of a weakening Europe and Japan, which makes American allies less significant and useful in solving global challenges.

Decline of the European Allies

Over the past decades, Europe has lost its economic, political and strategic strength. According to Mead, key European countries, including Germany and France, have failed to adapt to the digital age.

They have fallen behind in creating the new technologies and corporate structures needed to operate successfully in the 21st century. An obsession with climate policy aimed at reducing carbon emissions has damaged Europe’s competitiveness, and over-regulation has stifled economic growth.

The social security system, which many EU countries consider an achievement, has become a financial burden that undermines prospects for economic growth. These factors have left Europe vulnerable to China’s economic expansion and Russia’s aggressive policies.

EU political weakness

At the political level, Europe has failed to transform the European Union into a strong geopolitical player. EU national governments are too small to influence global events, and joint action is often ineffective due to bureaucratic clumsiness and compromise. Failures in migration policy have only worsened the situation: in the context of a demographic crisis, European leaders are losing the support of their voters, which gives room for the growth of radical movements.

Strategic failures

Europe is vulnerable not only to economic challenges, but also to political instability in the Middle East and North Africa. While the US is increasing its influence in these regions, European diplomacy there is virtually absent. The EU’s failures to respond to security threats are also reflected in its reluctance to effectively counter Russian aggression and Chinese economic expansion.

Europe’s inaction on Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Russia’s displacement of France from Africa highlight the EU’s strategic weakness. Despite three years of war in Ukraine, European countries continue to purchase Russian energy resources, supporting the economy of the aggressor. Moreover, the EU’s green policies have enabled China to undermine the European automobile industry, which is vital to the region’s economy and social stability.

Europe and Trump’s second term

According to Meade, Europe needs the United States today more than ever, but has less influence on American policy. This is why the leaders of once-strong European countries are reacting with alarm to Donald Trump’s statements. His second term in office could be more difficult for Europe than the first.

President Joe Biden has called Germany a key US ally despite Berlin’s many strategic missteps on Russia, China, Iran and climate policy. But Trump and his MAGA (Make America Great Again) team are disdainful of European failures and call for harsh criticism of the EU.

The role of the United States in the post-European world

Meade emphasizes that, despite criticism of European allies, the United States does not benefit from watching their decline. With the growing threat from revisionist powers such as China and Russia, America should help rebuild Europe rather than celebrate its weakening.

According to the author, the new American administration should refocus on cooperation with partners such as Japan, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who better understand modern challenges. Important opportunities for strengthening the US position are also opening up in the countries of Southeast Asia and South America.

The future of transatlantic relations

Meade believes that Europe is no longer the center of American foreign policy. If the EU fails to overcome the internal crisis, the future US administration will continue Trump’s policies aimed at creating a new global order in which Europe plays only a secondary role.

Earlier, Cursor reported whether Trump would support Israel’s decision to leave the IDF in southern Lebanon.