2024-07-04 10:30:30
Investing.com – After the first debate in the race for the White House, experts continue to analyze President Joe Biden’s re-election chances. “Forecasts favor a Trump victory as the most likely scenario,” says Libby Cantrill, senior director of public policy at PIMCO.
“Biden failed to convince undecided voters that he was prepared to continue in office for another four years and also appears to have alienated his own base, raising doubts about his current ability meet presidential demands,” Cantrill noted.
“Before the debate, we considered the presidential contest to be fair, but now, despite the fact that there were still four months until the election and many variables at play, the odds seem to be tilting in Trump’s favor, assuming that Biden remains in the race,” emphasizes the specialist PIMCO.
She also mentions possible consequences for elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, which could have an impact on future fiscal policy.
“Although the chances of Biden dropping out are still slim, they are now greater than ever. If that decision is made, we expect an announcement in a week or two,” says Cantrill.
Effects on markets
According to Cantrill, the main conclusions of the debate show that deficits will remain high, the United States will maintain an aggressive stance towards China and tariffs may increase, especially if Trump is re-elected. The key question is when these factors will be reflected in the markets.
For investors, the essential post-discussion features are:
- The electoral situation seems more favorable for Trump after the debate.
- The chances of Biden giving up his candidacy are slim, but they have increased.
- Tax policy will be a central issue in Washington in 2025.
- The deficit of the government will affect the elections the most.
- It is important to monitor the evolution of tariff policies.
Will Biden give up or not? Discusses the strategy
The issue of President Biden’s re-election dominated the discussion, which made his performance in the first debate tougher. This week, analysts from Strategas and Evercore ISI shared their views.
According to Strategas, Biden did not achieve “the expected results” during the debate, which affected his position for the elections. However, the company is predicting that he will remain the Democratic nominee despite the uncertainty.
Strategas analysts, based on conversations with campaign strategists, news articles, clients and election rules, suggest that Biden is likely to remain in the race, surprisingly. However, they recognize that unforeseen events can quickly change this situation, and they do not rule out the possibility that Biden will choose to preserve his dignity and legacy by withdrawing from the race.
Strategas also suggests that if Biden were to resign, the Democratic Party would quickly rally around him before nominating a replacement. For now, Biden’s closest allies defend his tenure, adopting a stance of resilience and recovery.
On the other hand, there are concerns that his inner circle may be minimizing his decline to maintain power, which could facilitate Trump’s return. This story is compared to the movie “Dave”, where the effectiveness of keeping the vice president on the fence is questioned.
Meanwhile, analysts at Evercore ISI note a significant change in campaign dynamics: “We now believe that the probability that Biden will withdraw from the race has increased to over 60% in the coming days.”
Criticism was expected after the debate, but the statements from allies loyal to Biden, who are beginning to publicly question his ability, as shown by Nancy Pelosi and Jim Clyburn, are surprising.
While fundraising remains strong among foundations, confidence among major donors is being shaken. Evercore points to the lack of a clear recovery plan as a growing problem, indicating that there are “no signs of a recovery plan.”
Biden’s upcoming ABC interview is viewed with skepticism by analysts, who doubt he can reverse the growing negative sentiment within the party.
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