2024-09-07 17:53:35
The conundrum of the authorities after October 27 will be complicated. 9 parties may enter the next National Assembly, and a cabinet may be formed from a collaboration between four partners.
Such a prediction was made by the sociologist from “Trend” Dimitar Ganev and the political scientist Lyubomir Stefanov in the program “This Saturday” on bTV.
“There is no way we can do a sociology for the elections. We will do one when all the parties are registered with the CEC. Then Trend and the other agencies will come out with an official sociology,” promised Ganev.
“Now some parties will be very difficult to follow. PP-DB or GERB will not have higher results than the previous vote. The trend of low voter turnout and voter withdrawal will continue,” he predicted.
“With BSP, the problem is the same. They will go below the line. The BSP is not a socialist party because it could not move into the 21st century.
It became a national-populist conservative formation. They are both in the box of social democracy and in the 21st century. This union saves the people in it to be noticed. BSP, however, does not recognize a cause, there are no ideas there.
Citizens do not vote for complex reasons. No party will win the vote, no matter who comes first.
The Bulgarians are angry with the PP-DB because they do not explain to them why they make assemblies and collaborations. PP-DB voters wanted rational explanations. They are reasonable people and understand that 1 and 1 does not make three,” Stefanov said.
With this increasingly low voter turnout, it could lead to even greater fragmentation in the National Assembly. With low turnout, the threshold for entering parliament falls. There is a chance that there will be between 6 and 9 parties in the parliament. If there are 9, it will be very difficult to manage,” said Dimitar Ganev.
According to him, the puzzle is not being simplified, but is becoming more and more complex. “There can be a government only with a coalition between GERB and PP-DB, plus not one, but two parties,” explained the sociologist.
“Sword” and “Majesty” have an electoral potential that is around the barrier and may enter the next parliament,” he explained, adding that despite the damage to “Majesty” they still have a chance.
“Until the election day itself, we will not know the exact number of formations, as they may vary,” Ganev was categorical.
Borisov waits with experience. He called several times for each party to solve its problems and for the state not to become a private instrument and club,” said Lyubomir Stefanov.
However, according to him, fatigue among citizens is widespread. “We are not producing anything, but more of the same. This nonsense from the rostrum of the National Assembly does not lead to anything,” he commented.
“Borisov will not support either of the two DPS. He will work according to the will of the Bulgarian citizens. He’s been getting away with this clever answer for years. His position will be clear,” he said.
“Borisov behaves politically. He sets goals and says how he will achieve them. I don’t want to advertise him, but only he talks like that,” Stefanov admitted.
According to Ganev, even if a cabinet is formed after the elections, the political crisis will not be resolved in depth.
“The parties in the parliament may form a cabinet, but on what basis does it rest? On the support of less than 1 million people. This is a lack of legitimacy.
Of those under 1 million people, at least half will be dissatisfied with the coalition government that will be created. Legitimacy of governance will be lacking and the crisis cannot be resolved now, even if we have a government with a short horizon of governance,” explained Ganev.