The IEE warns that the radical elimination of measures such as the fuel bonus may cause a new rise in prices
Inflation will continue to be one of the main headaches for the Spanish economy in 2023. And it is that, although a moderation in the rise in prices is expected, the ratio will remain at high levels in the coming months, far from the objective of 2 % established by the European Central Bank (ECB).
The monetary body has once again warned this Monday of the risk of a technical recession in the euro zone, with a decrease in activity in this last quarter of the year and the first of 2023. A contraction that would still be accompanied by inflation that would remain at average at 6.3% the next year.
The ECB’s general director of economics, Óscar Arce, explains that it is not just about energy prices. Another of the risks that could slow down inflation would be “more robust growth in the wage bill”. With a view to 2023, the institution forecasts an increase in wages of more than 5% in the euro zone.
Arce also recalls that practically all the governments in the region are implementing important packages of budgetary measures aimed at alleviating the cost of the energy crisis. “This explains why in 2022 and 2023 inflation may be lower than it would have been in their absence, but from 2024, when it begins to withdraw, there will be a temporary upturn,” warns Arce.
In the same sense, Íñigo Fernández de Mesa, president of the IEE, declared this Monday, just a few days after the Executive announces its third anti-crisis plan, which is expected to include changes in the bonus of 20 cents per liter of fuel, in addition to a check for vulnerable families, maintaining the VAT reduction on the electricity bill.
From the think tank linked to the CEOE they warn that, in the long run, the Government will have to be very careful when it begins to withdraw these specific support measures. They believe, like the ECB, that if it is not done gradually, it will cause a rise in inflation.
The institute’s forecasts suggest that inflation will close this year at 8.5%, a figure that would drop to 3.5% in 2023. At this point, they call for caution, agreeing with the ECB that one more salary increase higher than estimated can generate undesired second-round effects.