The risk of tension for the electricity network in January now appears to be “medium”, according to the latest analysis by the manager of the high and very high voltage network RTE released on Tuesday. He had previously placed it as a “high” risk month. “Provided that energy saving efforts are maintained, these favorable developments reduce the risk for security of supply compared to the anticipation of recent months, in particular for the month of January (…) without be able to exclude it in the event of very unfavorable meteorological conditions,” underlines RTE in its report.
“France is entering the heart of winter in a more favorable situation than at the beginning of autumn, and better prepared to deal with situations of tension”, affirms the manager, in the last update of his outlook for the system. electricity for the next four weeks. This favorable development is due to a sharp drop in consumption which is “now firmly established”, with a decline of 9% over the last four weeks. “The drop in electricity consumption is not a pipe dream, it is real and measured” and distributed between individuals and businesses, commented Thomas Veyrenc, executive director of RTE during an online press briefing.
In addition, the hydraulic stocks (the dams), which had suffered from the drought, were able to be “reconstituted” during the autumn, while the gas stocks were able to be preserved thanks to the mild temperatures of the months of October and November, which shifted the heating period. “The filling level of gas stocks is now around 85%, higher than in previous years,” underlines RTE. France has also been able to count on the solidarity of its European neighbors, with “a record level of imports (of electricity) close to 15 GW” in recent weeks.
Reduced risk of Ecowatt signal emission
Another notable factor, which has been closely scrutinized in recent weeks: the availability of the nuclear fleet, the available capacity of which exceeded 40 gigawatts (GW) from the week of December 12, in particular after the return to service of several reactors. “The increase in nuclear availability took place in line with our forecasts”, underlined Thomas Veyrenc.
All of “these elements make it possible to reduce the risk of emission of the Ecowatt red signal” compared to the basic scenario established by RTE in September. This signal warns of the risk of targeted cuts unless there are substantial reductions in electricity consumption. While RTE predicted the activation of 0 to 5 red signals in winter, this risk was reduced a little for the second part of the meteorological winter, to be “rather between 0 and 3 signals”, indicated Thomas Veyrenc. According to him, “we absolutely have the means to avoid cuts this winter”.