So far, so good. In any case, this is the mantra that the government and the majority seem to repeat to each other, a few days before a particularly uncertain start to the year 2023 in economic and social matters. “I am more optimistic than a month ago”indicates Jean-René Cazeneuve, the general rapporteur (Renaissance) of the budget. “There is going to be a crisis of greater magnitude than that imagined by the government”retorts Eric Coquerel, the president (New People’s Ecological and Social Union) of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly. “The economic situation is likely to get tougher and the country is socially fractured”underlines for her part Véronique Louwagie, deputy (Les Républicains) of Orne.
It is clear that in 2022, the worst did not happen. “In September, we were told a very turbulent return to school. It made pschitt”, slips Mr. Cazeneuve. Growth held firm – the government estimates it at nearly 2.7% – the main budgetary texts were able to be adopted even without an absolute majority in the Assembly, by recourse to article 49.3 – the opinion delivered , Thursday, December 29, by the Constitutional Council on the finance bill (PLF) 2023 did not censor any major provision.
The latest economic indicators are holding up: the number of jobseekers registered in category A (without activity) fell by 2.1% in November compared to October, just above 3 million unemployed, according to figures from the ministry. du travail published on Tuesday 27 December. Over one year, the decline in category A reached 9.8%.
As for the threat of power cuts, which panicked France a few weeks ago, it has not materialized for the moment, despite the cold snap that hit France in December. Have the repeated calls for “sobriety” launched by the executive paid off? Electricity consumption fell by 7.4% in the week of December 19 compared to the average for the same period of previous years (2014-2019), according to data published on Tuesday by the operator of the high voltage electricity network RTE . Emmanuelle Wargon, the president of the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), also wanted to be reassuring, Wednesday on France Inter: “The call for sobriety has really been heard. Over the last four months, we are at – 9% electricity consumption, for businesses and families. »
Threat of economic recession
But the worst is far from over. Firstly because the energy crisis is not over: “It’s still a little early to say what will happen in the heart of winter”further warned Mr.me Wargon, pointing out that “on the business side, we don’t know if [la baisse de consommation] it’s efficiency or lower production and, in this case, it’s not good news for the economy”.
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