three years after the announcement of the first death in China, the four scenarios of 2023 for the pandemic

by time news
A doctor works in a hallway of the Covid-19 unit at La Timone hospital in Marseille, southern France, January 5, 2022. NICOLAS DUCAT / AFP

DECRYPTION – While in France, the “ninth wave” is slowing down sharply, the question arises of the future of Covid-19. Will it become endemic or will it persist dangerously?

That was three years ago to the day. On January 11, 2020, China announced the first death of a “mysterious pneumonia” of unknown origin. The beginning of the spread of a virus that will later be named “Covid-19”. In France, this pandemic has already caused the death of at least 160,000 people, including more than 133,000 in hospitals.

Three years later, what scenarios to expect for France, while a major epidemic wave continues to affect China? “As for restrictions, it’s over“, reassures already with the Figaro Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva.

Likewise, “nobody believes in the scenario of the eradication of the virus, assures Anne-Claude Crémieux, infectiologist and author of Citizens have the right to know (Fayard – October 2022). Several conditions would have to be met, including that the vaccine be able to block the infection and confer a long duration of protection…

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