Posted Jan 20, 2023, 2:38 PMUpdated Jan 20, 2023, 4:51 PM
Some statistical records exceed the symbolic cap as they raise questions about the nature of the underlying changes. Example with the labor market: the threshold of 5 million signed CDIs was exceeded in 2022, according to figures from provisional hiring declarations published this Friday by Urssaf. It even took very little for that of 5.1 million to be reached.
At this level, this represents 700,000 more permanent contracts signed than in 2021, a year of very strong post-Covid recovery, or 845,200 more than in 2019, a pre-pandemic year. And this despite an economic context weighed down by energy, inflation, the war in Ukraine and the Covid in China.
Quantity and quality
Including fixed-term contracts of more than one month excluding temporary work, the figures are just as impressive with nearly 10 million contracts of more than 31 days signed, i.e. 1.3 million more than in 2019. If we do not look at the last three months of the year, they increased again in industry (+1.3% compared to the third quarter), remained stable in construction and fell in the tertiary sector (- 2.0% ). All this without counting short fixed-term contracts and temporary work.
Better still, the quality of these hires is improving: the rate of permanent contracts in relation to total hires excluding temporary workers was 18.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to calculations made by “Les Echos”. That is 2.8 points more than during the equivalent period of 2019 (15.9%). Or again, to give a political coloring to the ratio, 4.4 points more compared to the 2e quarter of 2017, when Emmanuel Macron was first elected.
These statistics do not tell everything, and in particular not the level of qualification attached to all these recruitments. The fact remains that the slowdown in economic activity has not prevented the hiring machine from running at full speed, even though this mechanically increases the difficulties for employers to find labour. “Not only does the economy create jobs at an exceptional level, but it is not at the expense of quality,” confirms Eric Heyer, economist at the OFCE.
Toggle of the balance of power demand and supply
This does not prevent the work of introspection as the compasses of economists are disoriented. During cycles of great recruitment difficulties, working time increases (thanks to overtime) then productivity, then wages. Quite the opposite of what is happening today, points out Eric Heyer who sees in it the sign of the shift in the balance of power between demand and labor supply.
Clearly, recruits prefer permanent contracts to fixed-term contracts – which companies cannot refuse them unless they deprive themselves of the labor they need – but not at the cost of their quality of life, and therefore of weekly working time. With one caveat, pointed out by sociologists, which will require an analysis of recruitment by age group to be sure: since the Covid, young people are less inclined to commit beyond two years.
High confidence
The fact remains that companies continue to invest and store. These are also the current drivers of activity, which testifies to a high level of confidence for the months to come. At some point, hiring will stop and productivity will start again, anticipates Eric Heyer, while admitting “not being sure of anything”.
This slowdown in recruitment, INSEE included it in its latest economic report. The national statistical institute predicts that the number of people in employment will increase by “only” 50,000 in the first half of 2023, compared to 236,000 over the same period last year.