The war in Ukraine has exposed widespread problems in the US arms industry that could limit the US military’s ability to fight a protracted war against China, a new study finds.
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The U.S. has pledged to send more than $27 billion in military equipment and supplies to Ukraine — everything from protective helmets to Hummer Jeeps — since Russia invaded the country last year. This arms flow is believed to have helped the Ukrainians weaken the offensive led by Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a campaign that became the largest land war in Europe since World War II.
But the protracted conflict has also exposed the strategic dangers the U.S. faces as its weapons stockpile plummets to a new low and defense companies are ill-equipped to replenish it quickly, according to the study, written by Seth Jones, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“The bottom line is that the base of the security industry, in my opinion, is not ready for the security environment that exists now,” Jones said in an interview. The industry now works in a way “more suited to an environment of peace,” he said.
Jones said the study, which reflected data received from senior officials in the military, the defense industry, Congress and other parts of the government, showed how quickly the US military would run out of ammunition in a potential conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific region. A conflict in the China-Taiwan Straits?”
Many wars have dried up the ammunition reserves
For the past 20 years, the US has been fighting insurgents in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, using a strategy that requires many troops. But the conflict in Ukraine is largely a conventional war that relies more on heavy weaponry. A conflict in the Indo-Pacific region against China will be different from the mostly ground war taking place in Ukraine. , but will still have to pull a lot of ammunition from US stockpiles.
Problems in the industrial sector, including productivity as a result of outdated military contracting procedures and a slow bureaucracy, affect the ability of the US to be a deterrent in the Indo-Pacific region or to face China in a military conflict, according to the study’s findings.
“These shortcomings will make it very difficult for the US to conduct a protracted conflict,” states the report. “They also emphasize that the U.S. defense industrial base lacks the ability to rapidly ramp up production for large-scale war.”
The rate at which the Ukrainians are consuming the weapons quickly demonstrates the challenges the U.S. industrial base could face in a protracted conflict over Taiwan. The number of Javelin shoulder-fired missiles shipped to Ukraine since last August, for example, is equivalent to nearly seven years’ worth of production based on the production rate in 2022, according to the study. The number of Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems transferred to Kiev represents roughly the same amount as the number of Stinger systems deployed in the last 20 years.
And meanwhile, more than a million 155mm shells sent to Ukraine by Washington have shrunk the US military’s own inventory, which is considered small according to the military’s requirements according to the study; Javelin system inventory, howitzer gun, and anti-artillery radars are all now considered low. Similarly, platforms, such as the Harpoon coastal defense system, which is an important part of Taiwan’s security strategy, are considered to be in medium supply, although their current quantity may not be sufficient for times of war according to the study.
“History shows that it will take years for the base of defense industries to produce and deliver sufficient quantities of essential weapons systems and ammunition, and to replenish stocks that will be used,” the study states.
Frustration and rage among the American generals
In addition, US military leaders have expressed growing frustration with the industrial base in recent months. Admiral Darryl Caudle, head of the US Naval Forces Command, reprimanded the defense industry for the delay in the delivery of weapons. “I do not forgive them for not delivering the ammunition we need,” he said when asked about the readiness of the US military at the same time that Ara” B sends billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine.
“All this stuff about Corona, parts, supply chain – it just doesn’t interest me,” he said.
While the US and its allies have been able to send billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine since last year’s invasion, the Pentagon predicts that Taiwan will not be easy to restock once a conflict starts, as Chinese forces will besiege the island early on. Already there is a shipment delay of more than 19 $1 billion in arms to Taiwan, based on confirmed sales since 2019.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies aimed its arrows mainly at the US government, which has failed to adapt to the situation and remains “inefficient, risk-averse and slow” when it comes to the defense industries. Also, government regulations concerning arms sales to foreign countries are outdated, according to the study, which stated that in the current process, decisions Regarding arms sales, they could be dragged out for 18 to 24 months. “In an attempt to prevent military technology from falling into the hands of enemies, the US has established a regulatory regime that is far too slow to work with countries in a critical situation on the front line,” the report said.
The study cited one example where the decision to provide an undisclosed weapons system to Taiwan by using the military system to sell weapons to foreign countries added two years to the delivery date. That is, it took four years to deliver the systems, considering the production time of two years. “This is a significant and problematic difference considering the tensions that exist in the Taiwan Straits,” the study said.
A week-long confrontation with China will eliminate the stocks
While the type of weapons that U.S. officials think Taiwan needs in combat is often different from what the U.S. has sent to Ukraine, the war in Europe has nonetheless exposed cracks in the defense industry’s foundation and in the government’s handling of the problem, Jones said.
At the same time, the government still needs to adapt to what Jones and others argue is a battle mentality that requires flexibility on the part of the government and efficiency in order to allow the defense industry to produce more weapons.
The government in China, on the other hand, has invested a lot in recent years in the modernization of the military. And in the context of a possible future conflict – a series of war games conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in recent months showed that the US, in the event of a conflict against China, could run out of some of its ammunition, including long-range precision-guided munitions, in less than a week.