Western leaders may want to be reassuring, but the prospect of an escalation of the war in Ukraine as well as a “direct confrontation” with Russia seems to be getting closer. Barely a week after the announcement by several NATO member countries of the delivery of dozens of heavy tanks to Ukraine, the Transatlantic Alliance is called upon to seriously consider sending ground forces to Ukrainian soil . A possible deployment that NATO already seems to be considering, since the alliance says “ready for a direct confrontation” with Moscow.
Statements that ignore calls to avoid an escalation and that join an ever-increasing supply of arms to Ukraine.
NATO must now consider the possibility of sending ground troops to Ukraine. At least that’s what former British defense minister Gerald Howarth thinks. Questioned Tuesday January 31, 2023 on Sky News, he estimates “that this is something that we must now consider”, and “the West wants Ukraine to win” this war. “Russia is the culprit, having invaded another sovereign state. Ukraine must win (…) but we have to think about where we are going”.
Gerald Howarth explains that the war is currently at an impasse. “At the moment it looks like a stalemate with Russia which has just flattened whole parts of this sovereign country like they did in Aleppo (Syria, editor’s note). The West has to decide if it supports Ukraine and if Ukraine should win”. The former parliamentarian stresses that Kyiv “must” win this war, wondering “Where will Putin go next?” otherwise.
‘Are you suggesting putting boots on the ground in Ukraine?’ – #kayburley
Former Defence Minister Sir Gerald Howarth: “I think that is something we now have to consider, certainly if you were to put a NATO force in there.”
Latest: https://t.co/X3flQUBL0r
????Sky 501 and YouTube pic.twitter.com/OtqLdIqLfj
— Sky News (@SkyNews) January 31, 2023
NATO and the “direct confrontation” with Russia that Germany “will not allow”
Rob Bauer, one of the heads of NATO’s military committee, seems to have the answer to this question. In an interview simultaneously granted to the Portuguese television channel RTP and the German wave (DW), this admiral of the Dutch navy claims that Vladimir Putin “has goals beyond Ukraine that could extend to neighboring countries”up to “recover the size of the Soviet Union”.
He said that the transatlantic alliance must focus on its rearmament and that this was “ready for a direct confrontation with Russia”. Contrary to its habit, NATO is not the “time master” and faces Russia “who comes to us and invades us. (…) They are the ones who decide when they come”he argued.
These remarks caused German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to react, who affirmed “there is no war between NATO and Russia” and that his country “will not allow such an escalation”. Last Wednesday, when he announced to the Bundestag the delivery of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, he justified this decision by the need to “do what is necessary to support Ukraine” while preventing “at the same time an escalation of the conflict towards a war between Moscow and the Western alliance”.
He insisted on maintaining the dialogue with Vladimir Putin, to whom he intends “talking on the phone again”without having any illusions since Olaf Scholz is affirmative: “It is also clear that as long as Russia continues to wage war by relentlessly attacking Ukraine”.
Berlin and Washington will not deliver fighter jets to Ukraine
An escalation that Germany plans to prevent by refusing to deliver combat aircraft to Ukraine, at a time when kyiv is demanding more military equipment. Olaf Scholz expressed a categorical refusal, advising against “to enter into a bidding war when it comes to weapon systems”.
The Chancellor is not the only Western leader to reject such a delivery. Just like last Wednesday, Joe Biden follows suit and declares that the United States will not provide F-16 fighter jets. This possibility had been debated for days with the allies within NATO, before he replied Monday, January 30 with a “no” to a question at the White House.
Washington has also been criticized by China for its arms deliveries to Ukraine. Beijing accuses the United States of being behind “crisis”. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning believes the Biden administration “unleashed” the war then “fed”.
The German and American decisions are unlikely to reassure the senior leaders in kyiv, whose calls to provide them with weapons, tanks and fighter planes are becoming more and more insistent. On Tuesday, January 31, it was the President of the Ukrainian Parliament, Rouslan Stefantchouk, who reiterated this call before the French National Assembly, first thanking France “for his commitment” then expressing his wish to see the Leclerc tanks delivered to Ukraine. Last Wednesday, the Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu affirmed that the decision to deliver these tanks or not will be made public. “in the next few days”.
Questioned in The Hague on Monday, President Macron said he was not opposed to supplying fighter jets to Ukraine: “Nothing is forbidden in principle”. However, conditions are laid down, in particular the fact that such deliveries are “not escalatory” and “not likely to touch Russian soil”. However, last week, Mykhaïlo Podoliak, adviser and close friend of Volodymyr Zelensky, threatened to “carrying the escalation of the war inside the Russian Federation”.
France and Italy are continuing their military aid. Waiting for Israel?
Kyiv should “to be satisfied”, pending French decisions concerning tanks and fighter planes, 12 additional Caesar guns, in addition to the 18 already delivered, the delivery of which was announced on Tuesday by Sébastien Biscornu. Ukraine can also count on Italy and the government of Giorgia Meloni, whose aid program will include the Franco-Italian Mamba SAMP-T system (Thales), defense weapons capable of neutralizing Russian missile attacks.
Israel, hitherto neutral, has also expressed its intention to provide military aid to Ukraine, while offering its services as a mediator. An intention against which Russia quickly warned. Moscow, through the voice of the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, recalled that “any attempt to deliver weapons” will lead to a “escalation of this crisis”.
The same Russian official wondered if Macron “truly believe” that these deliveries “will not lead to an escalation of the situation”. “I can’t believe that’s grown-up logic.” she tackled.