Despite food inflation of around 14%, the volumes of products sold in supermarkets have only slightly declined. DAVID ALSO/MAXPPP
ANALYSIS – The industry has been able to adapt to the shock of the energy crisis.
Vanished, the announced recession? In the fourth quarter, the French Gross Domestic Product (GDP) did not plunge but progressed, somehow, by 0.1%. THE “cold” anticipated in a context of shock on gas and electricity costs“has resulted in a slowdown and not a setback”, summarizes INSEE, in its note on the economy published on Tuesday. And the trend is continuing at the start of the year which should, however, according to the Cassandres, condense all the bad winds against a backdrop of inflationary peaks and the return of failures. Far from the Doldrums, the economy has settled into a form of gentle depression: INSEE is now counting on modest but solid growth of 0.2% in the first and second quarters.
The cyclical reversal indicator, a tool that traces from business surveys the difference between the probability that the economic phase will be favorable or unfavorable, illustrates this surprising sequence well. “
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