Despite having a record level of exports, last year the Government was forced to intensify its control over the exchange market to avoid at all costs a discrete jump in the exchange rate and, at the same time, meet the accumulation goal of reserves agreed with the IMF. This 2023 is not easy either. Minister Sergio Massa will announce loans in dollars from international banks against bond collateral, with which he seeks to consolidate the level of reserves to face the election year.
The amount of the loans would exceed USD 1,000 million, the rate will be one digit (Libor plus 4.5% or 5%) and the term will exceed two years. The dollars will go directly to the Treasury and not to the Central Bank. It would be the first international loan by private investors since the current government began, in December 2019. So far in February, the Central has already sold US$481 million.
The reserve accumulation commitment assumed with the IMF is very significant. More than USD 2 billion is still missing for the first quarter goal.
The measures implemented throughout 2022 by the national government sought to influence both the demand and the supply of foreign currency under the umbrella of a scheme that could be summed up in three words: “garrote” (restrictions on imports and the rest of the demand), “carrots” (“soybean dollar” 1 and 2) and “rabbits” (arrival of USD from the Financial Account). The consultancy Ecolatina wonders if it will be enough to implement the same strategy this year.
The result of the Central Bank in the multiple exchange market (MULC) in 2022 was a surplus of USD 5,824 million. Although the dynamics of BCRA intervention in the MULC throughout the year is already known, the published statistics allow a more detailed analysis of the main items that made up both the supply and demand of foreign currency in the MULC during 2022.
On the supply side, eight out of every 10 dollars that entered the MULC corresponded to the collection for exports of goods, where more than half is explained by agricultural sales that were benefited by high international prices (they reached a historical record by exceeding USD 47,000 M). In turn, the receipts for exports from the rest of the sectors also showed a notable increase of USD 8,000 million compared to 2021.
Regarding the demand for foreign currency, more than 62% of the dollars that left through the MULC were explained by payments for imports of goods, where energy purchases set a new record, exceeding USD 13.5 billion (both due to higher prices -because of the war- as well as larger quantities) and non-energy imports barely exceeded their 2021 level as a result of the restrictions (they reached their ceiling in April-May). In relation to the rest of the demand, it stands out that 16% was explained by the payment of services (influenced by the increase in freight rates and tourist trips) and 10% by the cancellation of private sector debts.
One point to highlight is that the commercial debt was one of the main allies of the Government in exchange matters during 2022. On the one hand, the exchange restrictions imposed at different times of the year limited the advance payments of imports (they represented less than 8% of payments when they generally explain more than 14%) and generated an increase in commercial debt linked to imports of goods: we estimate that it increased by close to USD 10,000 M in 2022.
On the other hand, as a counterpart to the 2 editions of the “soybean dollar”, there was also an increase in commercial debt linked to exports of goods: advance collections and their pre-financing totaled USD 7,200 M in September (56% of collections of the month) and USD 2,500 M in December (32% of the monthly collections).