Posted 23 Feb. 2023 at 7:52Updated Feb 23. 2023 at 7:54
While they feared a start to the year marked by strong turbulence, the bosses of SMEs and VSEs see the future in a more optimistic way. Tensions on the energy market have calmed down and activity is holding up fairly well in France. As a result, despite the difficulties encountered last year, more than two-thirds of the companies surveyed are not experiencing cash flow problems, with the balance of opinion for the next three months even improving, according to the latest quarterly barometer Bpifrance, Le Lab and Rexecode published this Thursday.
Sign of confidence in the future, while they have been declining for several months, their investment intentions are rising: 56% of the bosses questioned during the first half of February intend to invest in 2023 or plan to do so, against 49% the previous quarter. “Even if the growth dynamic is weak, the economic situation is not sufficiently degraded for them to give up or slow down their investment projects”, observes Philippe Mutricy, director of studies at Bpifrance.
Increase in energy bill
In the context of rising interest rates, however, the banks have become more cautious: 20% of bosses now report difficulties obtaining financing from them, a figure up 5 points compared to the previous quarter.
At this stage, their main problem nevertheless remains recruitment difficulties cited by 57% of SMEs and VSEs, ahead of excessively high costs and prices (41%). Despite the current lull, three-quarters of them expect their electricity bill to jump this year. Even if part of the sample benefits from regulated tariffs, a third of them would still suffer an increase of more than 15%. For 8%, the bill would double.
The deterioration in demand is also becoming an issue for some of the small companies (37%). On the other hand, as elsewhere, they note that tensions over supplies have calmed down.
On average 4.3% price increase
It is nevertheless on the front of price increases that SMEs and VSEs are sending the most worrying signals. 61% of them plan to raise their selling prices in 2023, as in last October. But the increases envisaged are higher: they would reach an average of 4.3%, against 3.8% announced three months earlier.
After more than a year of high inflation, 72% of bosses plan to increase salaries (excluding bonuses, profit-sharing) in 2023, while only 64% thought of doing so in October. The revaluation will be stronger and will reach 3.5% on average, against 2.6% expected in the fall. It will follow an average wage increase of 3.9% in 2022.
In this context, “the time needed to reduce inflationary pressures will probably be longer than expected”, believes Philippe Mutricy. The government is aiming for a decline in inflation in the second half.