The risk of tensions on the electricity network for the rest of the winter has gone from “medium” to “low”, according to the manager of the high and very high voltage network RTE, further removing the risk of power cuts in France. “The mid-February update for the end of winter confirms the diagnosis of the last few months: the risk relating to the security of electricity supply has now been largely eliminated”, estimates RTE in the latest update of its outlook. for winter.
The use of the Ecowatt alert system cannot be excluded “in the event of a large-scale climatic event (late and intense cold wave)” but this “appears unlikely, however, seen today”, adds RTE. “Zero risk does not exist, but I would say that we are almost out of the woods”, had also declared last Saturday on France Inter the president of RTE, Xavier Piechaczyk.
After initially fearing cuts in the heart of winter, France is finally finding a favorable scenario, largely thanks to electricity consumption down 9% on average over the last four weeks compared to the reference average. before health crisis (2014-2019). The drop in consumption affected all sectors, from individuals to industry and the tertiary sector. “The improvement in the situation is reflected on the economic level, the prices of electricity and gas having largely fallen in recent months”, notes RTE.
More nuclear reactors available
In addition, for France, which is 70% dependent on its nuclear production for its current, RTE estimates that the availability of the country’s nuclear fleet “is evolving in accordance with the expectations of recent months”. At its lowest during the summer of 2022 due to maintenance and repair operations, the availability of nuclear reactors has increased in recent weeks. During the month of February, it reached 45 GW, or “three quarters of the maximum power of the fleet”, specifies RTE, out of an installed capacity of 61.4 GW.
This availability during the spring will depend on “several uncertainties” and in particular the social climate, but should evolve “in levels slightly higher than those of last year”, underlines the organization. At the end of January, a strike movement at EDF, against the pension reform project, had caused load reductions in the power plants of nearly 3,000 MW, the equivalent of three nuclear reactors, but without causing cuts, according to the CGT and the EDF website.
A hydraulic stock to be managed with caution
“The ongoing drought since the beginning of 2023 calls for careful management of the hydraulic stock over the coming weeks in order to maintain sufficient flexibility potential for the coming months”, underlines the network manager. Hydraulic stocks have however “returned to levels close to the average”, and for gas, “the fall in demand and the weather conditions in the winter of 2022-2023 lead, everywhere in Europe, to an excellent filling level of storage”, removing any “short-term” concerns.
The risk of drought is very present in France, which could experience many water restrictions from March, which would be an unprecedented scenario so early in the year, after a new record of 32 days without rain and a winter very dry which jeopardized the recharging of groundwater, already depleted by the historic drought of 2022. On Friday, 41 out of 56 reactors were connected to the network, or 69.07% of the installed power, according to EDF data analyzed by AFP.