So where do we stand on Iran? Bennett was right in his complaint about the “inconceivable gap between rhetoric and (lack of) actions,” which he found in the Iranian case when he arrived at the Prime Minister’s Office. The policy vis-à-vis Iran since 2015 is a bankruptcy that has an address and is responsible. A default based on promiscuous negligence and dangerous self-delusion. The agreement in 2015 was indeed bad, but once they landed it became a fact.
Netanyahu chose a futile clash with Obama and thus missed a golden opportunity for an unprecedented Israeli intensification and the provision of means that would allow it to act independently against the Iranian nuclear program. In 2018, Netanyahu spurred Trump to withdraw from the agreement, a delusional move that allowed the Iranians an accelerated run toward a “threshold state,” claiming that it was the Americans who were violating it.
Worse, in both cases, out of a self-delusion that is reminiscent of “Life in a Movie,” Netanyahu did not work for years to prepare an Israeli and American “Plan B” in the form of a surgical operation that would take the Iranians back years, Iran is a bitter rival working to achieve its goals, but the broken trough is Netanyahu’s responsibility.
In a twist typical of the era of consciousness engineering, not far from the day when we hear Netanyahu and his mouthpieces lament that “as long as Netanyahu and Trump, the ‘strong’, led us, the Iranians were reluctant to move forward. Towards the nucleus. ” This is of course utter nonsense, which replaces cause and effect, but still sounds even worse than it.
The severity of the default becomes clear when one realizes that preparing a military option to actually postpone the nuclear program requires several years and massive US assistance. The result, however, is that long before that, in the space of a few months, the Iranians could become a nuclear threshold state that could not be stopped from reaching nuclear weapons at any time.
This is a new reality that requires a sober assessment of the situation, decisions and actions and not hollow public threats – which may impress some Israeli citizens – but neither the Iranians nor the negotiating partners. Apparently the negotiations themselves will resume in a “neutral shuffle” that will allow the Iranians to continue crawling towards a “threshold state”, or may not even resume at all.
“Israel’s urgent need is close coordination with the US to set common goals and ways to achieve them in a situation where Iran will be a ‘threshold state’, rather than public disputes and exchanges of accusations with the administration, which are of no practical use and are perceived in the world as hollow gestures. This includes strengthening intelligence cooperation, forming agreements on situations that require response, and preparing action plans. “
I often use the term “threshold state” because I think Iranians have no interest in stepping beyond that threshold, which allows them to enjoy their achievements without having to admit to violating the “Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty” they signed – thus forcing the leaders to act against them again through sanctions.
Even if the Iranians become a threshold state, when they accumulate enough 90 percent fissile material for 3-1 nuclear weapons, they will still need about two years to produce metallic uranium and build the weapons. However, the “threshold” was defined as defined because the 90 percent continued enrichment and the “weapons group” operation can be easily hidden.
Once that threshold is crossed, UN inspectors have no ability to make sure that Iran is not secretly advancing to a real nuclear power.
Prime Minister Bennett v. Iran at the UN in late September (Photo: AFP)Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons to drop a bomb on the United States, Israel, or any other neighbor. Just as North Korea does not possess nuclear weapons to drop a bomb on South Korea, Japan, or the United States – but to ensure Kim’s regime survival Jong Un and his freedom of action. The ayatollahs are jealous and extremist but not dumb. Far from it. Like them as North Korea who wants to survive and also influence what is happening in the surrounding area, but does not want to go back to the Stone Age.
Iran, if it becomes a ‘threshold state’, will enjoy improved regional and global status, immunity from external military intervention to overthrow the regime and increased freedom of action for subversion and activity throughout the region. She will be perceived as having achieved a strategic balance with Israel and will enjoy the image of someone who defied and forced her will on the world.
“In a typical twist on the era of consciousness engineering, it is not far off the day when we hear Netanyahu and his mouthpieces lament that ‘as long as Netanyahu and Trump, the’ strong ones’, led us, the Iranians were reluctant to move forward. “Breaking in the direction of the nucleus. ‘
The Iranians think and speak of Israel in terms of an unnatural phenomenon to the Middle East and must disappear under the overall pressure of opposition to its essence, way and existence – through a circle surrounded by active hostility and grounded by a combination of violent resistance from within and weakening from within. The Iranian capabilities or the sincerity of their aspirations to see Israel weakened, defeated and finally disappear from the map should not be underestimated, but we must not forget that we are not widows of Israel. In any visible range we are stronger than Iran or any combination of rivals, we have opportunities to join hands with some of the Sunni neighbors, and as we act wisely we will have at our disposal the overall backing of the (still) most powerful power in the world.
Moreover, for more than 50 years, Israel has been considered a nuclear power in the world, and according to foreign sources, it is a jubilee with huge investments – for the possibility that despite all its efforts, nuclear weapons will appear in a country hostile to it. The United States devotes its geopolitical power to dealing with China and goes beyond its commitment to presence or physical military involvement in our region.
This is a trend that started with Obama, overcame Trump and matures to concluding moves with Biden. There is no way to dissuade the United States from this priority or to persuade it to carry out an attack on the Iranian nuclear program in the near future with the aim of withdrawing it in a few years. This is the essence of Netanyahu’s historical failure described above.
Nuclear talks with Iran in Vienna (Photo: Reuters)
(Photo: Reuters)But the maximum created for Israel must be extracted from the situation that has arisen. Israel’s urgent need is close coordination with the US to set common goals and ways to achieve them in a situation where Iran will be a ‘threshold state’, rather than public disputes and exchanges of accusations with the government, which are of no practical use and are perceived in the world as hollow gestures. Backed by the ability to act.
This includes tightening intelligence cooperation, formulating agreements on situations and events that require an Israeli and / or American response, and preparing concrete and prepared action plans in case these situations do materialize. Coordination of increased assistance to Israel by means of independent action against Iran if necessary, and acceleration of the construction of the multilayer system for rocket and missile defense to Israel including solving the problem of Iron Dome interceptors, accelerating the development of defensive and offensive interception using laser and deploying “magic wand” and next generation arrow batteries. In circumstances of mutual trust, the US would be interested in such coordination, precisely because its attention is directed to China.
“In the case of a nuclear Iran, it is expected that Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia will strive to become nuclear within a decade and any dictator in the Third World who wishes to do so will build a nuclear capability. The goddess must be politically prepared today. “
A nuclear Iran, or even as a “threshold state,” is a cardinal change for the worse in our strategic situation, but it does not pose an existential threat to Israel in the foreseeable future. No expected development will absolve us of the responsibility to continue to look for any way to thwart the achievement of these Iranian goals, but we must never lose sight of reality. The understanding that a nation’s life has a price for failure also. And that one of the hardest of them is the addiction to illusions and leaders who live in the film.
At this stage, the main risk in Iran’s possible arrival in a “threshold state” is not that in the foreseeable future Israel will face the risk of an Iranian bomb being dropped on it. The real risk is an irreversible collapse of the “nuclear proliferation regime.” In the case of a nuclear Iran, it is expected that Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia will strive to become nuclear within a decade and any dictator in the Third World who wishes to do so will build a nuclear capability for himself.
In the situation that will be created (described years ago in Prof. Graham Allison’s book from Harvard), in 20 or 30 years a nuclear facility, even if primitive, may appear by an extremist terrorist organization – and it may be dangerous for the whole world, not just Israel. Even in these cases, especially with regard to the nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, a policy must be prepared today.
Hollow hollow is not the right way. This is not a policy but a recipe for weakening Israel and reducing its deterrence and freedom of action. From the new change government we expect more.