Russia is already toying with the idea of taking over Bakhmut. The owner of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said in a video posted on Friday that his fighters have the Ukrainian city “practically surrounded.” Ukrainian troops, he acknowledged, continue to defend themselves, “but their life in Bakhmut is short, about two days,” he said.
Prigozhin’s men have been leading the assault against Bakhmut for months, which in Russia is still called Artiomovsk, the name it had until 2016.
Ask Zelensky to withdraw his troops
“Before, the Ukrainian professional army fought against us, now we see more old people and children,” says Prigozhin
The city, where just over 70,000 people lived before the conflict, has become an important stronghold in Donbass (eastern Ukraine, made up of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces). If the Russian troops take control of them, they will be able to break the enemy’s supply chain and have a clear path to continue advancing towards the most important cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
The latter has served as the unofficial capital of the Ukrainian administration in the Donetsk province since 2014, when pro-Russian militias seized the official capital, Donetsk, and later created the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR).
Dressed in uniform, Prigozhin addresses the President of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelensky, in the video and asks him to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers.
“Just a Clear Path”
Videos on social media claim to show Ukrainian troops destroying bridges
“Units of the Wagner private military company have practically surrounded Bakhmut. There is only one road left (open to Ukrainian forces). The pincers are tightening,” says the Russian oligarch.
“If before it was the Ukrainian professional army that was fighting against us, today we see that there are more and more old people and children. They are fighting, but their life in Bakhmut is short, about two days,” predicts the head of the mercenaries. And, addressing Zelensky directly, he adds: “Give them a chance to get out of town.”
Taking Bakhmut would mean a serious victory for Moscow in this winter’s slow offensive, especially after last year its troops were forced to cancel their advance towards Kyiv and withdraw, first, from Kharkiv province (northeast) and then later, from the city of Kherson (south), the only provincial capital that the Russian army has managed to take during the intervention against Ukraine ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022.
Forecast from Wagner
The head of the Russian mercenaries assures that “life in Bakhmut is short, about two days.”
For months Ukraine has been willing to defend this position until it could. Last Tuesday, February 27, Zelensky stated in his nightly message that the army continued to resist, although he recognized that the situation was difficult. The Reuters agency confirmed this Friday that his soldiers continued to dig trenches in the west of the city.
According to Ukraine, Bakhmut has little strategic value. But the battle to conquer this place is assuming heavy losses for both armies. The large number of casualties may determine the future of the conflict.
The deputy commander of the National Guard of Ukraine, Volodimir Nazarenko, told the Ukrainian Radio NV that the situation was “critical”, that fighting was going on around the clock. “They (the Russians) do not take into account their losses in the attempt to storm the city. The task of our forces in Bakhmut is to inflict the greatest possible number of losses on the enemy. Every meter of Ukrainian land costs the enemy hundreds of lives “, said.
Stronghold in the Donbass
The large number of casualties on both sides may determine the future of the conflict
But Prigozhin’s forecast could come true, even if it takes longer than the two days he talks about in his recorded message.
Videos were circulating on social networks this Friday claiming to show that Ukrainian forces were destroying bridges in Bakhmut, which could indicate that there are already plans to leave the city, but making it difficult for Russian troops to advance.
And the commander of a drone unit operating in Bakhmut, Robert Brovdi, known by the nickname “Madyar”, said in a video posted on his Telegram channel on March 3 that his unit had been ordered to immediately leave the city. .
“I have received the order to leave Bakhmut immediately for a new place of combat. What are the reasons for this transfer when we have spent 110 days of military service here? I am mainly a military man, so I will not comment on the orders,” he said in his message.
On March 1, Alexander Rodnianski, Zelenski’s adviser, said in an interview with CNN that the military will withdraw from Bakhmut if the high command so decides. “For now they hold the city, but if necessary they will withdraw strategically, because we are not going to sacrifice all our people for nothing,” he explained. Of course, he did not give any dates.
He confirmed that the area west of Bakhmut had been fortified, adding that even if there is a withdrawal, “there is no mistake” because the counter-offensive by the Ukrainian armed forces “is just around the corner.”
Yevgeni Prigozhin ends the video in which he asks Zelensky to leave by showing three Ukrainian prisoners: an old man and two boys. Apparently terrified and with downcast eyes, the older one asks the Ukrainian president to come home and the younger ones add: “Please!”
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