One year after the invasion of Ukraine, NATO faces an unexpected challenge: the inability of its military industry to replenish the ammunition required by the Ukrainian forces.
On February 13, NATO acknowledged that it is unable to replenish ammunition supplied to Ukraine at the necessary rate. Just as an example, the Ukrainian artillery is firing ten thousand shells per day. The alliance’s secretary general, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg, said that “the current pace of Ukraine’s ammunition spending is many times higher than our current pace of production” adding that “this puts our defense industries under pressure.”
In this way, he confirmed the information that appeared in the US press in December, reporting that the NATO reserve arsenals no longer had enough material to continue supplying the Ukrainian forces at the current rate. Stoltenberg also said: “We’ve been aware of this for some time and we’ve started doing things, we’re not just sitting around doing nothing.” The reality is that the Western military industry has not been able to expand its production line with the required speed in the face of the intense consumption of ammunition and material. He also said: “We are in a logistics race”, adding that “essential capabilities, such as ammunition, fuel and spare parts, must arrive in Ukraine before Russia takes the lead. Speed will save lives”, coinciding in this with the request of the Ukrainian president.
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The underlying problem is that the military alliance had given priority to preparing for war scenarios such as Afghanistan and Iraq in the short term and China in the long term. A major European war was not foreseen as a probable scenario in the immediate future. This, beyond the discussion regarding up to what level of weapons NATO is willing to provide Ukraine.
The following day, Tuesday the 14th, the NATO “contact group” met in Brussels to coordinate, at the level of Defense Ministers, the shipment of the committed tanks to Ukraine. Normally, this group meets monthly at the US Ramstein airbase in Germany.
On January 20, the previous meeting of this group made up of NATO countries and almost twenty allies from different parts of the world was held, without being able to resolve the decision to deliver modern tanks to the Ukrainian forces. The resolution was adopted at the political level by the heads of government a few days later. But it is not turning out to be an easy operation to carry out.
Stoltenberg himself said after the meeting that “my main priority is that the commitment of the allies to administer armored vehicles, infantry vehicles and tanks, materialize as soon as possible because every day counts.” So far, the UK has confirmed delivery of fourteen Challenger tanks, albeit with no precise date. Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands jointly confirmed the delivery of one hundred Leopard I tanks – it is not the most modern model – but the arrival route to Ukraine has not been defined. Spain is considering providing five tanks that are under review – a rather symbolic measure – and Poland and the Baltic countries, which were the first to announce the delivery of tanks to Ukraine, are now showing a certain delay in making it happen.
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It will not be easy to quickly deliver the hundreds of tanks that President Zelenski urgently requires. As for the F-16 planes required by Ukraine, there is no decision, and the Ukrainian president has accepted that at this stage the assistance will materialize in the aforementioned tanks, ammunition and missiles.
Speaking before the European Parliament, the head of EU diplomacy, the Spanish Josep Borrell, maintained that the war will be defined between spring and summer. This means, for reference, between March 21 and September 21, 2023.
It’s a different idea from that of US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, who said in Ramstein on January 20 that an end to the conflict was unlikely this year.
The war thus enters its second year with two conflicting interpretations: Russia is winning against NATO, whose military spending is between 15 and 20 times greater, but it is losing against Ukraine, whose investment in defense is only a fifth of Russia’s. .
Both seem to be happening at the same time.
*Director of the Union Study Center for the New Majority.
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