AGI – Between curfew at 22.00 until 31 July, vaccinations that proceed too slowly and uncertainties about the restart of businesses and the movement of people, tourism risks sinking in 2021 as well: without a clear trend reversal, there is a risk of falling below 187 million admissions at the end of the year (-8.2%), with a further reduction in flows from abroad (-14 million admissions).
A scenario that would lead to over 220 thousand companies in the sector at risk of closure.
These are the estimates of Assoturismo Confesercenti, that in the dossier “Tourist Season 2021: on the wave of the vaccine” traces the balance of the impact, past and future, of the pandemic and restrictions on the Italian tourism sector.
Unfortunately, a budget in the red: in 2020 there were almost 233 million fewer visitors with one economic loss of 88 billion. The hotel sector suffered the greatest losses (-57%), while the non-hotel sector still saw a lack of 47% of presences. But the collapse of tourism had a serious effect on all businesses in the supply chain, from accommodation and catering – which saw 42.5% of revenues vanish – to travel agencies and tour operators (–76.3%).
A huge loss
The economic loss for the sector (total domestic tourism consumption) was 55%: of the 88 billion, 32 were lost from hotel and non-hotel accommodation, 12 billion from public businesses, 3.5 billion from travel and tour agencies operator, 10 billion from other tourist services and shops, which have seen tourist shopping disappear.
At the territorial level, the regions that found themselves a lose more tourism consumption are Lombardy (-11.7 billion euros), Lazio (-11.4 billion), Tuscany (-10.9 billion), Veneto (-9.7) and Emilia-Romagna (-7 billion).
The cities of art such as Venice, Rome and Florence, in particular, have suffered from the flight of foreigners: the drop in total presences in these areas has touched 75%.
After the catastrophe of 2020, underlines the dossier, aeven 2021 got off to a bad start. At the end of the first four months of the year, we read, “the situation in the tourism sector remains dramatic. The blockade imposed on the sector in this first part of the year is in fact translating into a further decline in presences in our area ”.
Only “a full reopening in safety as early as May, eliminating the curfew and hitting the target of 500 thousand daily vaccinations, would allow to return to at least around 300 million admissions (of which 148 million foreigners), to then bring the levels back together in 2022 preceding the pandemic “.
“Intervene in government”
“We have outlined scenarios based on current trends. Our hope is that the government will intervene to give them a clear inversion, putting their hand to the Reopening Decree to eliminate the obstacles that, as they are, risk wrecking especially the summer tourist season: you cannot think of making tourists come and close them in the hotel as early as 10pm ”, he comments Vittorio Messina, president of Assoturismo Confesercenti.
“Frankly, we expected more from this government, at least a clear timetable; instead, we almost arrived in May without certainty. We need to make a change. We have to accelerate the implementation of the Green Pass, provide for a new holiday bonus and do not pull the plug on sector support: on the contrary, new support is needed that also take into account the fixed costs incurred by companies, the extension until December 2021 of the tax credit on leases, the moratorium on evictions and the redundancy payment. But targeted interventions are also needed to support and relaunch hospitality, hotel, non-hotel and plein air businesses, organized tourism, guides and the non-scheduled public transport sector, from NCCs to tourist buses. Above all, companies must be allowed to return to work safely ”.
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