NATO Secretary General warns of the need to increase production so that it is possible to supply Ukrainian forces, while defending every inch of alliance territory
“The war in Ukraine is consuming a huge amount of ammunition,” declared, at the end of February, Jens Stoltenberg, general secretary of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), by warning about the shortage of products and the problems that this can cause. Despite mobilization from the West and military support from the alliance, the army of Volodymyr Zelenksy may run out of ammunition to continue fighting due to the delay in producing materials. This situation arises as a result of Ukrainian troops firing more than Western weapons companies can produce – the lead time for delivery of large-caliber bullets is reaching 28 months. “Ammunition spending in Ukraine is many times higher than our current production rates. This puts our defense industries under pressure,” said Stoltenberg. The lack of aid for Ukraine is not the only concern. Without ammunition, Western countries are vulnerable. “These nations are not only steadily delivering ammunition to Ukraine, but they can put themselves at risk if their ammunition stocks are too low,” explains Igor Lucena, economist and PhD in International Relations from the University of Lisbon.
In a statement during a meeting of the contact group for Ukraine – which has representatives from more than 50 countries – Stoltenberg revealed that, initially, NATO had covered Zelensky’s needs only with the alliance’s stock, however, he informed that it cannot but continue like this. “We need to produce more to supply Ukrainian forces, while ensuring we have enough ammunition to defend every inch of Alliance territory.” This change causes nations to pressure their suppliers to increase production. On the other hand, they also try to get other countries, like Brazil, to start supplying weapons. In January, during the meeting between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil was asked to send arms to Ukraine, but the petista declared that the country will not do that. “Brazil has no interest in passing on ammunition, so that they are not used in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Brazil is a country of peace, therefore, it does not want to have any participation, even if indirect”, he declared.
Even with the pressures that the countries that have remained neutral until now have been suffering to send weapons to Ukraine, even more so now with the shortage of ammunition, Lucena does not believe that this will make these nations enter the war. “Countries that remained neutral will remain neutral, what can happen is a triangulation, that is, these countries sell ammunition to other nations and they import it, legally or illegally”, explains the specialist, recalling that this is what happened when the Europeans decided to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine – they needed authorization from Germany to continue the supply.
The war in Ukraine caused another problem to arise: the increase in weapons production. “The world has never been able to get rid of weapons, and as the war has affected the geopolitical environment, countries end up rearming. In a moment of tension and breakdown of reactions, the arms industry tends to increase again, unfortunately”, says Carlos Honorato, Master and PhD in Administration from FEA-USP. “It’s been the geopolitics of the world since forever and it’s not going to change now”. A proof of this change was the Germany, which three days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, changed its foreign policy and announced that it will increase its military spending. This was the first time that the German government took this type of action, which goes against its policy established since the end of World War II, after the expansionism and war crimes of Nazism. Until the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany had built its strategy based on the rejection of military interventions and the delivery of arms to countries at war. “Weapons and equipment production has already increased dramatically, the main factories are operating in three shifts, the large international companies with public capital in Europe have already appreciated their shares by more than 100% in the last 12 months”, says Lucena.
This week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared that his country wants to reinforce,and massively, its capacity to manufacture ammunition and military equipment to respond to the security challenges following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The government is in talks with the defense industry about making “a real change of direction — towards quick, planned and effective acquisitions of military equipment from the Bundeswehr and other European armies”, Scholz declared before the lower house of the German Parliament. The objective, according to him, is to create in Germany “an industrial base that will make its contribution to guaranteeing peace and freedom in Europe”. “We need continuous production of essential weapons, equipment and ammunition. This requires long-term contracts and advancements to develop manufacturing capabilities,” he stressed. European leaders promised the Ukrainian president to speed up the supply of weapons and ammunition.
Honorato sees the shortage of ammunition as beneficial to Russia. “War has been programmed and threatened by Putin for a long time. Russia prepared for conflict. What we see now is that, on the one hand, you have someone who prepared, and on the other hand, a joint is doing everything to be able to face the Russian attack”. He points out that one of the factors that may have led to this possible shortage of ammunition is the fact that the West is sending the weapons, but not having enough time to train the soldiers. “It’s no use having a bunch of weapons and not having soldiers who know how to use them, you need to have a combination of resources”, says Honorato, adding that the problem is industrial and logistical “is you manufacturing, delivering, training people to use the weapons ”. Despite not having information about Russia’s situation and whether it is experiencing difficulties with regard to ammunition, Vladimir Putin is requesting weapons from China, which, despite not having officially declared that it is on Russia’s side, has said it is willing sending weapons. “This indicates that Russian stocks are not in their best formations”, points out Lucena.
The correspondent ofDW‘ in Kiev, Nick Connolly, said that the resupply of ammunition is something that concerns Russia as well. He spoke with a commander on the Ukrainian side who revealed that he is having to make difficult choices. “I met commanders of howitzers, of artillery pieces, who told me that they don’t know how long they will be able to continue doing their job, whether they will be forced to withdraw and move away from positions and wait for more ammunition,” the correspondent told DW. Even if the lack of ammunition is something to worry about, Honorato does not see the end of the war due to lack of ammunition as a possibility. “It is not possible to imagine an end to the war due to a shortage of ammunition. Despite the comings and goings, it won’t be for lack of bullets that the war will end, unfortunately. There will be fluctuations, maybe at a moment things will be more paralyzed, but it won’t end due to lack of bullets”.
