Logistics income in Barcelona will increase by more than 3% in the first quarter of this year due to the increase in financing costs and the lack of supply. The ‘prime’ income of the main logistics hubs they closed 2022 at 7.75 euros per m2/month, with a growth of 3.3% compared to 2021 and reaching the highest figure at the national level. This is one of the main conclusions of the report ‘Industrial & Logistics Trends’ produced by CBRE.
The logistics availability of the first crown has fallen in 2022 to 1%. The second crown has closed the year with an availability of 4.3% and the third, 5.9%, reaching income of 6.5 euros and 4.25 euros, respectively. In general terms, the Barcelona market has closed with an availability of 3.8% in 2022. This figure will foreseeably grow to 4.8% this year, driven especially by the delivery of new projects in the second and third logistics crown.
Logistics sector trends
Regardless of the evolution of income and the rate of availability, the behavior of the logistics market will be marked this year by the commitment to sustainability and the digitization of the sector.
The main demand factors are the quality of the warehouses and the flexibility or expansion capacity, in addition to the number of docks, the height or the ease of access, with other aspects such as warehouse automation, robotization or software development and Big Data to improve distribution processes. All this without forgetting the location. As a result of availability problems, more and more operators are looking in new areas and are focusing on other locations, also analyzing the labor market.
Sustainability is the fourth key attribute: every day it will be more difficult to close contracts that do not meet these criteria. According to the ‘European Logistics Occupier Survey’ that is launched every year to the main pan-European occupiers, 78% of the companies consulted already have a plan towards decarbonization among their objectives, relying on sustainable energy alternatives, electric charging points or lighting LEDs in the ships. The adoption of ESG criteria is also reflected in the forecast for income growth in the medium and long term. 63% of those surveyed would be willing to pay an increase in income for that green premium.
Regarding the type of operations, in terms of volume we are seeing how the operations of medium-sized ships and ‘big box’ are the ones that attract the greatest demand. However, in terms of the number of operations, in recent years the contracting of smaller ships has increased, a trend that is being transferred to the promotion of ships. In this sense, we also see how more modules are being built from large warehouses, which shows the trend towards flexible spaces in order to cover a greater number of clients.
Another aspect that has marked the investors’ roadmap is the increase in construction costs, which have grown vertiginously from August 2020 to May 2022. From CBRE, the forecast is that they will fall slightly and in the next year it is expected that a third of the entire rise will be recovered. Regarding the type of projects that are being seen on the market, currently more than 70% of the developments are speculative, compared to 51% before the pandemic. Barcelona is where the largest volume of these projects at risk is recorded.
By segment, supermarkets double their exposure, holding 22% of the total contracted area and the textile sector moves to fifth place, having multiplied by 5 the total space contracted in the last year.