Kis the combustion engine off still ticking? Superficially, everything in the discussion about the ban on combustion engines is in the interests of the FDP. Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer joined the criticism on Friday. “I will also oppose banning the internal combustion engine,” he said in Vienna. The Czech Ministry of Transport has invited twelve countries from Germany to France to Italy to the car summit in Brussels on Monday. It should be about the controversial Euro 7 emissions standard, now the focus should be on the combustion engine off. Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans moves. And in Berlin, the Federal Ministry for the Environment is apparently ready to accept a solution for all new cars, no longer just for special vehicles such as ambulances.
Even a concrete solution is circulating in Brussels. The Commission could propose to revise EU rules on fuel efficiency – paving the way for the use of synthetic fuels (e-fuels) in internal combustion engines. This would have the advantage that the law passed by the European Parliament on climate targets for cars would no longer have to be changed. Everyone involved in Brussels wants to prevent this at all costs, since renegotiations not only take time, but would also jeopardize the complex climate package for 2030 as a whole. Everything from emissions trading to climate targets for ships to the expansion of green electricity is interconnected.
Specifically, the Commission would propose to change the definition of CO2-change to neutral fuels. So far, this has been based on whether CO is present at the exhaust2 is expelled. This is exactly what has so far sealed the end of the combustion engine. Because the climate law for cars does not directly prohibit the combustion engine. It just bans all cars that don’t use CO2-neutral fuels, i.e. where CO2 comes out of the exhaust. This is what electric cars and hydrogen-powered cars do. It’s different with cars that run on e-fuels – even if they only use CO2 release it again, which was previously extracted from the air during the manufacture of the e-fuels. If it were no longer decisive how much CO2 comes from the exhaust, but like the CO2-balance looks overall, the door for combustion engines powered by e-fuels would be open again after the reference year 2035.
Face-saving solutions
The dispute is not yet close to being resolved, the Commission warns. The model is just one of several that is currently being discussed between the two main players – Timmermans and the German Minister of Transport, Volker Wissing. The talks are far from being nearing completion. When the Swedish EU Council Presidency can resume the vote in the Council of Ministers on the climate law for cars, which was suspended after the FDP voted no, remains open.
It is taken for granted that no one will then prevent the FDP from claiming victory for themselves – no matter how much the FDP’s blockade may have damaged Germany’s reputation and the credibility of the EU legislative process. The much-cited “compromise-finding machine EU” is always geared towards producing face-saving solutions for all sides. As a rule, this even applies to cross-shots by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
However, it is also clear that the FDP will probably not achieve more than one stage victory. Because the Commission will not present a concrete legislative proposal before the final vote of the Council of Ministers on the car targets, which will clear the way for e-fuels and the combustion engine. It is about a “declaration” from the Commission, with a concrete commitment and probably also a timetable for the submission of a proposal, it is said. In a way, the Commission would thereby establish what Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) in the summer – albeit at the time, contrary to Wissing’s claims, without specific time commitments.
Irrespective of this, a proposed law is far from being law. It has to be accepted by the European Parliament and the EU Council of Ministers, just like the currently blocked climate law for cars. Both EU institutions could still seal the end of combustion engines by simply rejecting the proposal. So far, there hasn’t been a majority against phasing out combustion engines. And in the European Parliament, at least initially, the willingness to accommodate Germany on this issue is likely to be rather low after Wissing’s last-minute intervention, which was heavily criticized.