Members of the Scottish National Party (SNP) begin voting on Monday for the new regional leader, in an internal election between three candidates with very different profiles that raises questions about the future of the independence movement, stalled after the defeat in the 2014 secessionist referendum and the refusal of the British Government to allow another consultation.
Two women and one man will compete to be in charge of the political force and succeed Scotland’s chief minister, Nicola Sturgeon, who resigned in February, in a vote whose winner will be announced on the 27th of this month.
Among the applicants are Scottish Finance Minister Kate Forbes, Health Minister Humza Yousaf and Ash Regan, MP for the Eastern District of Edinburgh.
Each of them has a profile that could mark the direction that the party will take in the future and mainly where the country will go.
According the surveys, Yousaf, 37, first Scotsman of Asian origin and Muslim to be appointed as a government ministera position he has held since 2012, leads the preferences with 31% and is considered the most socially progressive candidate and a symbol of British multiculturalism.
Forbes, 33 years old and with 25% of the vote according to the pollswas the name that sounded the most to replace the Scottish leader, but she lost support for her position against the legalization of equal marriage a few years ago and other questioned statements, such as that sex has to be reserved for married couples.
Last in the race is Regan, 48 years old and with 11% of the preferencesa prominent political figure and opponent of the Scottish Government, mayor of Glasgow between 2003 and 2007, and also a former Minister of Culture until she resigned in 2020 in protest of the regional Executive’s plans to facilitate the recognition of gender change.
Despite these resumes, a latest report by British pollster YouGov showed that Sturgeon’s potential successors are largely unknown to the Scottish public.
When asked which of the seven candidates would be the best replacement, the three finalists plus four others who dropped out of the race, 54% responded that they “don’t know.”
When Sturgeon announced his resignation, he did so in the midst of a debate over Scottish independence.after the refusal of the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, which declared illegal the referendum proposed for October this year.
In this context, it is expected that the issue of secession will have a prominent place on the agenda of the next regional government, although the chances of advancing in its objective are slim and the polls do not support this desire for independence.
For Karlo Basta, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Edinburgh and co-director of the Center for Constitutional Change, “there is no one in the SNP with the experience and stature” of Sturgeon, so the party is “in a blind alley”.
“Neither the current UK government nor the Labor opposition are prepared to allow a second independence referendum, which is the only legal and legitimate path to independence. The only thing that could pressure the UK government to concede would be a substantial increase in support to independence in opinion polls,” the political analyst told Télam.
However, he stressed that despite all the mistakes in London, including those related to Brexit (the exit from the European Union), support for independence remains practically at the same level as five or six years ago, with some fluctuations.
“Therefore, no matter who ends up succeeding Sturgeon, he’ll have to choose from one of several unappealing options. The new leader could, for example, choose to treat the upcoming UK or Scottish elections as de facto independence referendums, but this is not likely to produce any tangible results and may cost the party the credibility it has built up over the years. the last 16 years,” he added.
According to Basta, alternatively, could postpone the immediate search for independence and try to win broader support through good governance, although he is not entirely convinced that secession can be achieved through such means.
In that framework, eThe analyst does not believe that Scottish independence is likely in the short or medium term and affirmed that the independence movement, and the SNP with it, seem “to be stuck in a rut” that generates a bump in their desire to become a new country. “Sturgeon’s march is not the cause of that bump, but its clearest symptom and manifestation,” he concluded.
In the same line, Adriano Bosoni, geopolitical analyst and director of analysis at RANEa company dedicated to global geopolitical analysis, said Sturgeon’s early resignation confirmed that the movement is “at a standstill.”
“For years, the SNP, led by Sturgeon, insisted on a legal and negotiated referendum with the British government. While this strategy underscores the party’s commitment to international law and the need to send a message of reassurance to businesses and markets, it also has clear limits for the simple reason that the British government will not approve a referendum in the foreseeable future,” he explained in dialogue with Télam.
For Bosoni, there is no indication that London will change its mind on the matter as long as the Conservatives rule, but indicated that even an eventual Labor prime minister would be very reluctant to the idea of another referendum after the “no” victory in 2014
“This leaves the independence movement in an awkward situation. The legal route to independence is practically exhausted, but there is no consensus within the party as to what to do from now on. Although some sectors of the SNP raise the possibility of making unilateral decisions, such as calling a referendum without the authorization of the British Parliament, these voices are still in the minority,” he added.
According to the international analyst, it is not clear that there is a consensus in Scottish society regarding jumping into the void and challenging the British government and breaking the law.
In that sense He gave the example of the case of Catalonia, which in 2017 unilaterally declared independence, which led the Spanish government to decapitate the regional Executive and arrest the main pro-independence leadersa memory that is still very fresh in the memory of the Scots, even among the most nationalistic.