One of the major changes in India’s foreign policy over the past ten years has been India’s changing relations with the Gulf countries. With the regime change in India, the region was looked at with greater depth and strategic perspective.
On India’s changing relationship with UAE, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, External Affairs Minister S. This was Jaishankar’s reply when asked.
India’s cooperation with Gulf countries continues to increase in many important sectors. India cooperates with these countries on many aspects in energy and defense sectors.
India has good relations with most of the Gulf countries. Crucial to this relationship is the oil and gas business. Apart from this, the large number of Indians working in the Gulf countries and their remittances back home are important aspects of this relationship.
Last year, the ‘Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement’ (CEPA) was signed between India and the United Arab Emirates. Under the CEPA agreement, emphasis is placed on increasing trade in goods as well as increasing trade in services and investment.
India buys maximum crude oil from Iraq. Next comes Saudi Arabia. However, India’s import of crude oil from Russia has also increased significantly.
In such a situation, along with the changing relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a debate has started on India’s role there.
China is also an important part of this debate. Its direct role is evident in the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
image source, Reuters
Caption- Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei (left) and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
Agreement between Sultish and Iran
Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have been adversaries in the Middle East for decades, now seem to be changing.
Both countries have announced the resumption of diplomatic relations. Both countries have agreed to open embassies within two months and respect mutual sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs.
The decision was announced after four days of talks between representatives of the two countries in China.
Iran’s top security official Ali Shamkeni and Saudi Arabia’s defense adviser Musaid bin Mohammed al-Eban also signed the deal on Friday. The event was also attended by China’s top embassy official Wang Yi.
He called the agreement a victory for negotiations and peace. He added that China will continue to play a constructive role in solving difficult global issues.
In such a scenario, it is important to look at India’s perspective on what will change between India’s interests in the Gulf countries, waning US interest and China’s efforts to increase its influence.
How did Iran and Sultan’s relationship deteriorate before?
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- Seven years ago, Iran and Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties after a major dispute.
- In 2016, Iranian protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran following the execution of a well-known Shiite religious leader in Saudi Arabia.
- Since then, tensions have been high between Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and Shia-majority Iran.
- The modern rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran began in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution. Iran then called for the abolition of monarchy and the imposition of religious rule in all Muslim countries.
- Iraq invaded Iran in 1981. In which Saudi Arabia supported Iraq.
- Currently both countries are mutually embroiled in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Libya.
The interests of the United States and Israel in the confusion of these countries have further complicated the situation.
Since India’s interests are intertwined with both countries, India has had to strike a balance in its foreign policy.
But experts feel that the situation is slightly favorable for India at present. Because India’s two friends who were once enemies, are now becoming mutual friends. This may improve India’s predicament a little.
Bilateral relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have had an impact on the Gulf countries and the entire world. Bilateral problems of the two countries have become global problems. Other countries like Egypt, Turkey, Russia, China were also indirectly involved,” said Jawaharlal Nehru University’s West Asia expert Professor AK Pasha.
“As far as India is concerned, India has had to reduce its trade due to US pressure on Iran’s nuclear programme. Gradually, the matter became more complex and India began to develop deeper ties with Gulf countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. At the same time, Iran has distanced itself from India and its closeness with China has increased.”
“It was tough for India. But so far it hasn’t made a big impact. But if there is a military regime in Pakistan or any other change in Afghanistan, there will be an impact on India-Iran relations,” AK Pasha further said.
China’s role
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However, AK Pasha feels that it may not be appropriate to jump to conclusions about the latest move by Iran and Saudi Arabia. He says that these diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia will have to be watched for a while. Its immediate effects are not seen in India. This is a good step. But India should think about China taking advantage of it.
China’s growing role in the Arab world is something India needs to watch out for, said Professor Sanjay K. of Jawaharlal Nehru University’s Center for South Asian Studies. Bharadwaj, opined. But China’s role in the current transition has been overstated, he says.
“It is not entirely correct to say that China is playing an important role in the talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been trying to improve their relations for the past 3-4 years. Informal talks are underway. But now that it had to be formalized, the matter has been moved forward,” he says.
“India is the most important country in Asia. India is a major market for Saudi Arabia and Iran for oil and natural gas, as is China. India’s economy is also growing at 6-7 per cent,” explained Professor Bharadwaj.
“India is also strengthening its ties with Iran in terms of connectivity with Central Asian countries. India is also developing Sabahar Port. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia see India as an ally. They are also taking a soft stance on Kashmir,” he said.
“Both China and India have their own strategic, economic and political interests here. “There are no contradictions between China and India,” noted Professor Bhardwaj.
“As far as its neighbors are concerned, India faces a direct challenge in terms of regional security. But the Gulf states have security concerns. As China’s influence in the Middle East increases, competition in the energy sector will increase. But the rest of the investment opportunities are equal for both countries.”
Where is the challenge for India?
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India’s institutional problems and political equations between India and the Gulf countries also become important. Experts feel that India’s hands are somewhat tied here.
“China is increasing its influence and trade through the Belt and Road Initiative. India should do the same. But India doesn’t have as much capital as China,” says AK Pasha.
China can clearly wield political influence. India does not want to do this. India does not want to anger America and Israel. China can do this because of direct tension with the US.
“India being a democracy, it takes time to do something. It cannot make decisions like China. That is why there is a delay in the implementation of any decision. China is taking advantage of this to some extent,” noted Sanjay K Bharadwaj.
Pakistan’s role
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Pakistan’s role cannot be denied when it comes to Islamic countries and China. Pakistan has proved to be an important link in bringing China closer to Islamic countries.
After the agreement between Saudi and Iran, Pakistan said that Pakistan will continue to contribute to peace and stability in the region. Pakistan also praised China for this. In such a situation, what kind of challenge will the Pakistan-China pair pose to India?
Sanjay K Bharadwaj opined that Pakistan is currently close to China, but may lose its importance in Islamic countries later.
“Pakistan has the support of Saudi Arabia. Because of its nuclear wealth, Sulthi considers it a protective shield of Islam. However, there has been a change in this as India’s closeness with the Gulf countries has increased,” he said.
“On the other hand, if China comes closer to Iran and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s importance will diminish. China had earlier drawn up a plan to set up a parallel group of Gulf states. Turkey, Malaysia and Iran were united in this. Now if the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia ends, Pakistan’s role will automatically diminish.”
However, experts insist that relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran should be further explored. Given the history of the two countries, they consider these changing relations precarious.
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