The incident involving Russian planes and a US drone in the Black Sea appears to be the most significant confrontation between the US and Russia publicly acknowledged since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine just over a year ago.
The episode – which ended with the US aircraft crashing into the sea – raises many questions and represents a time fraught with danger, despite the fact that Russia denied that its planes made direct contact with the drone.
John Kirby of the US National Security Council (NSC) said there have been other interceptions by Russian planes “even in recent weeks”, although this was different.
Could it have been an accident?
“Based on the actions of the Russian pilots, it is clear that it was unsafe, unprofessional,” was the verdict of the Pentagon’s press secretary, Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder.
“I think the actions speak for themselves,” he added.
Does the behavior of the Russian pilots, who allegedly dumped fuel in the path of the drone and then collided with it, represent a significant escalation?
According to the Pentagon, the entire incident lasted between 30 and 40 minutes.
Ryder said that during that time there was no direct communication between the Russian and American armies.
US officials say they believe the Russian Su-27 jets involved in the incident “probably” sustained some damageindicating that the collision was not deliberate.
“I know that the State Department is raising our concerns about the incident directly with the Russian government,” Ryder reported.
What does the episode mean, if anything, for the future of US drone operations over the Black Sea and for the vital surveillance such operations provide Ukraine?
“If the message is that they want to discourage us from flying or operating in international airspace over the Black Sea,” Kirby told VOA radio, “then that message will fail because that’s not going to happen“.
surveillance tool
It would not be surprising if Russia wanted to make it as difficult as possible for Ukraine’s allies to carry out such work.
Meanwhile, Washington has remained silent about what happened to the drone.
After the collision with the Russian ships, American remote pilots were forced to shoot it down in the mar black.
Ryder did not say where the aircraft landed or if the Russian navy was trying to recover it.
Audio recordings circulating on social media seem to indicate that some sort of Russian take-back operation was taking place. But this has not been confirmed.
Clearly, Washington would not like a surveillance technology so sensitive fall into Russian hands.
For US President Joe Biden, who is determined to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, this is a delicate moment.
It is not just Western weaponry that is helping Ukraine resist Russia’s invasion.
It is also a wealth of real-time intelligence on all aspects of Russia’s military operations, including the movement of ships in the Black Sea and the launch of targeted missiles across Ukraine.
From defending Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure to planning its own offensive operations, Kyiv depends to a large extent on the constant flow of information.
For obvious reasons, US officials will not reveal the extra precautions, if any, that their surveillance operations will now entail.
Washington wants to keep them going, but wants to avoid the use of force and risks being drawn into a more direct confrontation with Moscow.