An almost constant opening sentence in this column in recent weeks indicates the dizzying speed of the deterioration in international relations. He’s coming back this time too.
There has not been such a deterioration at almost any point since the end of World War II. There were very dramatic crises, but they were usually localized: Berlin, Korea, Suez, Cuba. It is doubtful if there has been a given moment since 1939 when the deterioration has occurred simultaneously at the far ends of the earth.
Please give your opinion on 24 hours at the beginning of this week, Monday and Tuesday.
On Monday, at a summit in San Diego, California, the US president and the prime ministers of Britain and Australia created a powerful new naval missile in the South Pacific aimed specifically at China. “A dangerous and wrong way,” China responded angrily, one day later. China’s dictator promised his puppet parliament that he would establish a “steel wall” against the nation’s enemies.
President of China, Xi Jinping / Photo: Associated Press, Ng Han Guan
On Tuesday, in the skies over the Black Sea, two Russian fighter jets attacked an American drone. One of them poured fuel on it, and then collided with its propeller. The drone’s operators had to cause it to crash.
What does autumn 1941 remind you of?
The summit in California was planned. The ambush in the Black Sea was completely unexpected. The summit confirmed the general, terrifying direction of a Sino-American military conflict in East Asia in the near future. The incident in the Black Sea illustrated the extent to which things can get out of hand in an instant.
Our political outlook is saturated with historical associations, some of which are in place and some of which are the result of an unacknowledged use of clichés. But let us here try our hand at association.
In the early fall of 1941, President Franklin D. Roosevelt ordered the US Navy to provide aggressive cover for the North Atlantic supply convoys, which allowed isolated and besieged Britain to stay alive. A few weeks before the US was dragged involuntarily into World War II, a semblance of neutrality persisted. Nevertheless, the president released the American captains from the shackles of neutrality. He allowed them to fire on the German submarines. Shots were indeed fired, although the declaration of war Hitler’s waited a little longer.
What happened in the Black Sea is perhaps the equivalent of the shootings in the North Atlantic a little over 80 years ago, in the sense that Russia is now testing the US. What is the purpose of this attempt? More, he is just an opportunistic pulse-tapping.The first Russian announcement of the incident was cautious and low-key, compared to the American announcement which was dramatic and full of exclamation points.
“cruising intelligence centers”
Another Russian message, a few hours earlier, came in cooperation with China. The two leading totalitarian powers of our time condemned the decision of the US and UK to provide nuclear submarines to Australia. The decision had been expected for some time, but it was officially announced at the San Diego summit of US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Prime Minister of Australia, Tony Albanzi (this tripartite association is known as AUKUS, the English acronym for the three countries).
Special importance is assigned to the role of Albanzi. He heads a left-wing government, which came after nine years of right-wing hegemony. For years, the Australian Labor Party ignored both points towards China, and most of its leaders avoided taking a clear position on the question of China’s military strengthening and its expansion trends.
China is now active in the South Pacific, in close proximity to Australia, and out of competition with it is gaining influence in the small islands. The hesitations are over. Australia sees itself as part of a Western defense front, committed to the peace of a number of countries in East Asia; From Japan, go through the Philippines and end up in Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia. They all think that China is infringing on their sovereignty.
The Australians are about to purchase five American nuclear-powered submarines that carry long-range (non-nuclear) Tomahawk cruise missiles. At the same time, Britain and Australia will develop smaller nuclear submarines with advanced American technology and the same cruise missiles. At a time when the US is losing its traditional advantages in most weapon systems, its nuclear submarines still enjoy a considerable advantage. They are described not only as weapons of war, but as “cruising intelligence centers”.
To teach us something about the sophistication, complexity and cost – 18 months were necessary just to plan this deal. Over the next ten years, Australia will spend $360 billion on developing its submarine fleet. The American submarines will arrive in her hands only at the beginning of the next decade, and in the meantime the US will loan her three submarines.
China and Russia stick together
The need to contain China has been woven into the strategy of the US and its allies for more than a decade. This trend involved three Asian powers: India, Japan and Australia. Australia’s relations with China have deteriorated in recent years to the extent that China imposed economic sanctions on it. The Australians came back and accused China of trying Undermining their democracy, and buying local collaborators with money.
The broad context of the hostility is China’s behavior in the huge water basin that lies between the Korean Peninsula and Indonesia, the East China Sea and the South China Sea. China claims ownership of huge parts of it, including those much closer to the shores of other countries, and including those whose free navigation is enshrined in international law. China has built artificial islands, turned them into stationary aircraft carriers, and is openly threatening shipping. Pending, of course, is the matter of Taiwan, the ticking time bomb of East Asia and indeed of the world.
It’s almost hard to remember that this year opened with signs of improvement in Sino-US relations. Secretary of State Tony Blinken was about to go to Beijing, to settle at least some of the issues. Then the Chinese hot air balloon arrived in the US sky, Blinken canceled his trip, and most of the two Dialogue between the two countries is conducted through mutual public condemnations.
The next link in the deterioration is probably going to be the trip of the ruler of China, Xi Jinping to Moscow. The totalitarian powers cling to each other in a common threat to democracies.