It was a risk, and it becomes clearer. Not really brilliant on the European scene this season, with several precocious ones including that of PSG in the knockout stages of the Champions League this year, Ligue 1 still points, this Friday, to 5th place in the UEFA index (far behind England, Spain, Germany and Italy) but the gap with its main competitor, the Netherlands, is closing. The good news, however, is that with the elimination of Porto in the Champions League, Portugal cannot come back to France, even in the event of an exploit from Benfica. It’s already that.
The challenge, and it is high, concerns the 2024-2025 season. With the overhaul of the Champions League, the country ranked 5th at the end of the current season will send three clubs directly to the group stage of the C1 plus one in the preliminary round, against 2+1 at present. If ever France were to be overtaken, it would remain with its three potential qualified in the Champions League, and the additional place granted to the 5th would therefore go to the Dutch Eredivisie. Similarly, only the winner of the Coupe de France would be directly qualified for the Europa League, the 4th and 5th in the championship having to complete a marathon of preliminary rounds to join it.
In short, it would be fashionable to stay fifth. Problem: there is only Nice, qualified for the quarter-finals of the smallest European competition, to bring points to France. While the Netherlands still have Feyenoord in the Europa League quarters and Alkmaar in the Europa League conference quarters. And only 2,000 points behind.
Not that big of a difference. To try to summarize how this ranking works and what these 2000 points represent, we must first understand the methodology. It is based on the results of the clubs in European competitions in the last 5 years, each year being calculated on an average of the points collected by all the clubs of the same country, weighted by the number of clubs of this country qualified for the Europe (France thus had 6 representatives at the start of the European campaign, against 5 for the Netherlands). Each victory, draw and qualification earns points, sometimes with bonuses such as when qualifying for the knockout stages of the Champions League.
At present, France is therefore fifth, having raised 60,999 over the last 5 years. It is, of course, very far from England, in the lead with 106.427. The Netherlands has 58,900 at present.
1. England: 106,427 points, including 19,857 this year
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5. France: 60,997 points, including 12,416 this year
6. Netherlands: 58,000 points, including 12,500 this year
So much for the image before the quarter-finals of the three competitions. Because everything can, of course, still change. Due to the various possibilities of victories and qualifications, it is too complicated to establish all the scenarios which would allow the Netherlands to return to France. But a big performance from Feyenoord, who ridiculed Shakthar Donestk on Thursday in the round of 16 (7-1) in the Europa League, which brings in more points than the Europa League Conference, could be fatal to France. Not even counting Alkmaar. And this even if Nice went far.
In short, it is not won, and the draw for C3 and C4 (this Friday at 2 p.m.) is therefore of great importance. With a possible Nice-Alkmaar quarter-final as a justice of the peace?