Donald Trump: What will happen if the former US president is arrested this week?

by time news

Donald Trump says he will be arrested on Tuesday on charges stemming from an investigation into a $130,000 payment to porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016.

He would be the first US president to face criminal charges.

Here are some key questions about what is at stake in this case.

What is Trump accused of?

In 2016, adult film star Stormy Daniels approached media outlets to sell her account of the adulterous affair she allegedly had with Donald Trump in 2006.

Mr Trump’s team got wind of it and his attorney Michael Cohen paid Ms Daniels $130,000 to shut up.

There’s nothing illegal about it. However, when Mr. Trump reimbursed Mr. Cohen, the record of the payment indicates that it was for legal fees. Prosecutors say that amounts to saying Mr. Trump falsified business records, which is a misdemeanor — a criminal offense — in New York.

Prosecutors could also allege it is a breach of election law, as his attempt to conceal payments made to Ms Daniels was motivated by the fact that he did not want voters to know he had had an affair with her. Covering up a crime by falsifying documents would constitute a felony, which is a more serious charge.

Even proponents of lawsuits acknowledge that in either case the case is far from clear. There are few precedents for this, and past attempts to indict politicians for crossing the line between campaign finance and personal spending have ended in failure.

“It will be difficult,” says Catherine Christian, a former New York City Attorney’s financial prosecutor.

Will he really be charged?

It is up to New York City Attorney Alvin Bragg to decide whether to prosecute. He assembled the grand jury to determine if there was enough evidence to prosecute, and he alone knows if – or when – an indictment will be announced.

Last week, lawyers for Mr Trump said the former president had been offered the chance to appear before the grand jury, which is seen as a sign that the investigation is nearing completion. .

Lawyers played down suggestions that they or Mr. Trump had been given advance notice of an impending impeachment, saying Mr. Trump’s comments about it taking place on Tuesday were based on media reports.

However, there are other signs that the grand jury is wrapping up its work.

Michael Cohen and his former legal adviser Robert Costello have both testified in recent days.

Mr. Costello was brought forward by Mr. Trump’s defense team on Monday in an attempt to discredit Mr. Cohen’s testimony.

What happens if Mr. Trump is arrested?

If charged, Trump’s lawyers said the former president’s arrest would follow standard procedure.

That means he could leave his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, to show up in court in New York, with a formal check-in, fingerprints and photo ID.

Given the historic nature of such a move and the security concerns it raises, how it would play out is uncertain and would likely be the subject of negotiations between the prosecutor’s office and Mr. Trump’s team.

Once the case is registered and the judge chosen, other details fall into place, such as the date of the trial, any travel restrictions and bail conditions for the defendant.

The reading of the indictment – ​​the moment when the defendant makes his plea before a judge – is open to the press. However, the court can take steps, such as giving them a private entrance to the court, to protect their privacy and maintain security.

Law enforcement agencies, including the Secret Service, which provides custody for Mr Trump and other former presidents, have been involved in contingency plans in the event of an arrest, officials have told US media.

A conviction for a minor offense would result in a fine. If Mr Trump were convicted of a crime, he would face a maximum sentence of four years in prison, although some legal experts believe a fine is more likely and a time behind bars is highly unlikely.

Will there be demonstrations?

After hinting in a social media post that he would be charged on Tuesday, Mr Trump repeatedly called on his supporters to demonstrate in droves: “WE CANNOT TOLERATE THIS ANY MORE. THEY ARE KILLING OUR NATION AS WE STAND WITH ARMS CROSSED”.

His comments echo rhetoric he used before the attack on the Capitol in 2021 and raised concerns about the risk of violence.

Mr. Bragg is in close contact with police and New York court security, according to a letter to his department that was leaked to the press on Sunday.

“We do not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threats to the rule of law in New York,” he wrote.

“Our law enforcement partners will ensure that any specific or credible threats to the office are thoroughly investigated and appropriate safeguards put in place.

However, there has so far been no evidence of the type of organized mass protests that led to the January 6 attack.

Can he still run for president?

An impeachment or even a criminal conviction would not stop Mr Trump from continuing his presidential campaign if he chooses – and he has given every reason to believe he will continue to push forward no matter what. .

In fact, nothing in US law prevents a candidate convicted of a crime from campaigning and serving as president – ​​even from prison.

However, Mr. Trump’s arrest would certainly complicate his presidential campaign.

While she might entice some Republican voters to rally behind their struggling champion, she could be a significant distraction for a campaigning candidate trying to garner votes and engage in debates.

In addition, this affair would deepen and inflame already very marked cleavages within the American political system.

Conservatives say the former president is held to a different standard of justice, while liberals see it as holding accountable those who break the law, even if they hold the highest offices of power .

bbc africa

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