It is easy to imagine that the rich in hydrocarbons Central Asia could offset losses in Russian energy exports to Europe. Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent rupture in energy relations between Europe and Russiathe inevitable question of the origin of its much-needed resources EU. emerges as a persistent issue. The E.U. found herself squeezed by the fact of her universal and ten-year dependence on the natural gas supplies from Russia and the lack of preparedness for their interruption. It is now turning to identifying alternative partners, revamping its infrastructure and even bringing back coal-fired plants, which would reverse its environmental commitments. For their part, the states of Central Asia, rich in hydrocarbon reserves, are among those countries that can potentially replace Russian fuel. It is easy to imagine that these countries would play such a role, although the probability of such a plan being implemented is very small. And this is not due to little progress in democratic reforms in Central Asia, but to pragmatic and commercial decisions made decades ago.
Could Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan make up for Russian export losses?
First of all, when we talk about Central Asia as an energy supplier to Europe, we mainly mean Kazakhstan and possibly Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan is already somewhat present in the European energy import mix, while Kazakhstan has not yet fully developed its potential. Kazakhstan’s production is already operating at maximum capacity, with 80% of its oil going through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and very limited capacity to increase volumes sent through the Druzhba pipeline. In addition, the country faced some problems in 2022 when exporting its hydrocarbons to international markets through pipelines passing through Russia due to the closure of port facilities in Novorossiysk. Dependence on the infrastructure of the Russian pipeline connecting Kazakhstan to Europe puts the country in a precarious position. It does not serve the willingness of European states to cut ties with Moscow and also does not give any freedom for alternative transport routes for Central Asian oil and natural gas in the short term. Furthermore, despite huge reserves and new developments in the field, investment in further exploration in Kazakhstan has declined in recent years. Currently, Turkmenistan does not directly supply Western markets with natural gas. Its main export destinations remain China and Russia.
The exchange agreement signed between Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan in 2021 provides for the delivery of two billion cubic meters of natural gas of Turkmenistan to Iran, which further provides the corresponding amount of natural gas to Azerbaijan. This opened a window to facilitate Turkmenistan’s natural gas trade with European markets. If an immediate increase in supply from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Europe is unlikely, would medium- or long-term cooperation be possible? The answer to the above question lies in the past and should have been answered about 20 years ago. The opportunity to build infrastructure between the two was lost when the E.U. prioritized reviving its relationship with Russia.
Dr. Aliya Tskai is a researcher at the University of Agios Andreas specializing in the energy transition and the goal of zero pollution. The article is published on the website of the Friedrich Ebert Institute.