The Moderates recently gathered in Karlstad for their first major conference after last year’s election. The party succeeded in their goal of taking control of the government, a fact that was celebrated by many happy faces. However, there is still much uncertainty about the party’s future since they have lost the last three elections, with the Sweden Democrats making significant gains in the latest elections. The Moderates’ election analysis indicates that their traditional role as the leading party on the right in Swedish politics is no longer as clear, with the Sweden Democrats and the Social Democrats taking on more prominent roles. This has created concern among many Moderates as being the leading party on the right is an essential part of their self-image. Despite this, the Moderates have four years to reverse this negative trend, thanks to the Prime Minister and ministerial positions that they have acquired.
In recent elections, the Moderates have lost support from two important groups: women and metropolitan voters. This decline is most evident in the big cities, where their support has fallen from over 30% to 19%. It is believed that the party’s approach to the Sweden Democrats is a contributing factor to this decline, as female voters tend to have a more negative view of the Sweden Democrats than men. The Moderates’ political message has become more conservative and less liberal, with a stronger focus on issues such as crime, immigration, and fuel prices. This differs from their previous emphasis on issues like healthcare, education, and the environment, which are more important to women than men.
Additionally, the Moderates are growing in rural areas, but the majority of voters live in metropolitan areas. To expand on a national level, it is important to attract women and metropolitan voters. However, appealing to these two groups with different appeals and policy proposals creates difficulties, as messages and tones that attract one group may repel the other.
The Sweden meeting in Karlstad is the Moderates’ first major gathering since the election last year. And of course there are many happy faces. The moderates succeeded in what they set out to do; to seize government power. And nothing cheers up moderate party meetings more than when you can show off your own ministers.
At the same time, there is uncertainty within the party about the future. The last election was the third losing election in a row since 2010. Instead, the Sweden Democrats’ electoral spurt decided the election in 2022. SD also became the second largest party and has been given a key role for the new government.
If the Moderates do not succeed in reversing this development, the party’s position in Swedish politics risks being degraded. It is about the role of the leading party on the right in Swedish politics.
Not the same obvious role
These are questions that are also addressed in the Moderates’ own election analysis. The self-evident role and clear position that the Moderates have long had in Swedish politics is no longer as self-evident and clear, they write. In a new political landscape, the main dividing lines in Swedish politics risk being between the Sweden Democrats and the Social Democrats, not, as in recent decades, between the Moderates and the Social Democrats.
This picture of the future creates a nagging concern among many moderates. Being the leading party on the right in Swedish politics is also a given part of the party’s self-image.
However, the fact that they succeeded in capturing government power has given the party four years of respite. The post of Prime Minister and a number of other ministerial posts automatically direct the spotlight on the Moderates during this term. There is thus time to try to reverse the negative trend.
Women and metropolitan voters
Two voter groups, which partially overlap, are particularly important to the party. It is about women and metropolitan voters. In both groups, the Moderates have lost voter support in recent elections.
The development is most clearly visible in the big cities. In Stockholm, the Moderates could count on over 30 percent of the voters for a long time. Since 2010, however, things have gone downhill. Most recently, the Moderates received only 19 percent of the votes in Stockholm. Support among women is also clearly lower than among men.
There are probably several explanations for this. One is that the party’s approach to SD has been disliked by relatively more women and metropolitan voters. Among female voters, there is a clearly more negative view of SD than among men.
Appears more conservative than liberal
The approach to SD also has a close connection to the shift in the party’s political message. The moderates appear today as more conservative, and less liberal. There has also been a clearer focus on tough issues, such as crime, immigration and fuel prices. In contrast, the party spoke less in the election campaign about issues such as health care, school and climate, issues that women rank significantly higher than men.
At the same time, the Moderates have grown in the countryside. The problem for the party, however, is that most voters are in the metropolitan areas. If the party is to grow on a national level, it is important to reach women and metropolitan voters.
However, how this should happen is a difficult question. These voter groups likely require completely different appeals and policy proposals. Messages and tone that attract one group risk repelling another.