Chinese President Xi Jinping’s three-day visit to Moscow and his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin this week drew global attention. Not only is this the first time the President of China has come to Russia since the outbreak of the war, but this is the 40th face-to-face meeting held between the two in the last decade.
In Beijing’s view, this is a political move designed to promote the peace initiative that it presented on February 24 as the “12-point” outline for ending the war in Ukraine. Although many in the West expressed doubts about President Xi’s ability to make peace in the ongoing struggle in Ukraine, what’s more, his visit was initially presented as an effort to expand the strategic partnership that “has no borders” with Russia, but the Kremlin confirmed that he discussed the details of the Chinese peace plan with President Putin.
Furthermore, against the background of the ongoing struggle in Ukraine and the increase in tensions with the United States, the tightening of relations between Beijing and Moscow arouses great vigilance in Washington and the capitals of the West. Observing the moves of the Chinese president shows that the establishment of relations with Russia is intended, for him, to create a stable common front that will allow him Redirecting resources to the Indo-Asian region, where the power struggle against the US is expanding to gain areas of control and influence.
The recent increase in diplomatic moves by the Beijing government allows it to position itself as a “peace-seeking” power and establish its position in the international arena. In the meantime, her efforts regarding Ukraine constitute an opportunity for her to signal to the US and Western governments that China, which strives to increase regional security stability, is today – especially after the mediation between Riyadh and Tehran – in a critical key position in the international arena.
Not only is China the only actor that can mediate between the opposing parties, but it is able to continue to maintain cooperation with the US and the countries of the European Union (EU), and at the same time influence Russia and its leader. There is no doubt that in the chaotic reality and in the changing and upheaval world in which We live, China, which came out of isolation after three years of the Corona crisis, can surprise and lead moves that will change the fate of the war and the map of relations in Europe, alongside the global balance of power.
Asymmetric partnership
While sharing a long border spanning 4,300 km, China and Russia are key players in world politics, seeking to limit US influence. Being global powers and permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and Russia – despite their ideological and strategic differences – strive to reshape the global balance of power and establish a new multipolar world order.
However, despite the expansion of trade, economic and military-security cooperation between them (such as their participation in military maneuvers, including the naval exercise conducted by Chinese, Russian and Iranian forces in the Gulf of Oman at the beginning of the month), and despite the strengthening of bilateral relations and strategic partnership, a closer look illustrates the – Symmetry between the sides.
Not only did the war in Ukraine lead to the deepening of cooperation and the signing of agreements in various fields, primarily energy and infrastructure (such as the plan to establish the “Siberia 2” gas project, which will go from Russia to China through Mongolia), but the escalation of the struggle drastically increased Russian dependence on China, as well as the The dependence of the defense industries on the import of chips and the expansion of Chinese financial investments.
However, despite its senior position as Russia’s main trade partner and as the second largest target market after the EU, the Beijing government avoids treating Russia as a secondary partner. In the Chinese view, strengthening the relationship with Russia as a strategic partner provides it with relative security stability, while providing access to sources of energy and food.
It was not for nothing that the spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Minister announced that President Xi’s visit to Moscow was intended to “promote peace, cooperation and friendship”. Recently it was even announced that while in 2021 Russia, which was considered to be China’s second largest supplier of crude oil, was responsible for about 15% of the total volume of imports from it, in 2022 China accounted for about 30% of the volume of Russian exports and about 40% of the volume of its imports.
The reason for the dramatic increase in the volume of trade between the countries is the worsening of the international sanctions on Moscow, combined with the use of the Chinese yuan instead of the dollar/euro. In addition, the West’s disengagement from Russian energy sources increases dependence on China.
And so, not only has 13 months of war changed the balance of power to its detriment, but its international isolation, and even more so the declaration by the International Court of Justice in The Hague of Putin as being responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, are eroding Russian power. On the face of it, it appears that if so far China has been content with increasing the volume of energy imports from Russia at reduced prices, the day will not be far when it will set conditions for the continuation of its loyalty and commercial relations.
For example, the deepening of Chinese economic activity in Central Asia, maritime access to the Arctic Circle and the limitation of Russia’s relations with various countries, primarily India, in view of China’s territorial tensions with it.
Key actress
It is not for nothing that the President of China is careful to distinguish himself from Putin and his belligerent moves in Ukraine. Beyond the huge gaps between the countries, the lack of trust and the deep suspicion between the leaders – the growing fear in the Beijing government of Russian discrimination in Ukraine is forcing it to take more and more risks, and even to flex its political and diplomatic position.
Furthermore, the combination of internal challenges in view of the slowdown in its economic growth after three years of Corona, and international crises, including the worsening of the struggle in Ukraine and the increase in tensions with the US, especially in East Asia and the Indo-Asian region – leaves no room for doubt. China, which recognizes the limitations of its power And due to the importance of the West for her – contrary to the Russian nihilistic approach – she cannot afford to cut herself off from the US and European countries, which are her main trading partners and a strategic axis in the Chinese “Belt and Road” project.
A closer look even makes it possible to notice that despite the great disputes, gaps and tensions that exist between them, among other things in view of its perception as a threat, China was in 2022 the largest trading partner of the EU, being responsible for importing goods from it to the extent of 20.8% and exporting to the extent of 9%.
And so, while maneuvering between conflicting positions and conflicting interests in its relations with Russia and Europe, there is no doubt that the war in Ukraine is for China’s leadership an opportunity to promote a new agenda. Although it is still too early to determine whether and to what extent the EU countries will cooperate with it to prevent the escalation of the struggle, it is already apparent that in view of the transition to renewable energy following the disconnection from Russian oil and gas, the dependence of the Western countries on China – the world’s largest consumer of lithium and which controls approximately 80% – is increasing of global crude lithium production. A dependence which it may leverage to establish its diplomatic position in the international arena, among other things in the Ukraine issue.
Against this background, it is not for nothing that in the discussions surrounding the meeting in Moscow between the leaders of Russia and China, attention was focused on the condemnation of China’s diplomatic moves and the tightening of relations between Moscow and Beijing. In a narrow view, not only can the Chinese mediation be presented as a “victory” over the US and its allies, but it is already clear that the West refuses to recognize the great potential inherent in the Chinese efforts.
Although China has so far avoided direct involvement in complex conflicts, with the exception of mediating the recently signed agreement between Riyadh and Tehran, which is a breakthrough for it, a combination of its global vision and its quest to preserve security stability with its economic strength, its business approach, the scope of its ties and relations with many countries of the world and its deep familiarity with Russia – may outline a framework that will help lead to a ceasefire between the parties.
Although China has not yet condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is precisely China, being a strong economic, military and technological power with 1.4 billion people and 5,000 years of history and a past rich in wars and struggles, that is a key factor in the international arena, which may influence Putin and the fate of the war in Europe.
The author is an expert on geopolitics and international crises
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