Since Latin America democratized in the early 1990s, when several countries transitioned from authoritarianism to democracy, 35 years have passed. Since then, this has been one of the most diverse regions politically speaking due to the range of regimes it hosts and the particularities of each of them. In fact, two countries are currently transitioning from imperfect democracies to hybrid regimes: Mexico and El Salvador.
Hybrid regimes, according to specialists such as Leonardo Morlino and Terry Karl, are characterized by being framed in countries that share four conditions: they have a weak rule of law, they are polarized, they have a strong military presence and have periodic elections in a multiparty system and with alternations.
In the case of Mexico and El Salvador, both coincide in the particular training of the leaders who lead them and in how they took advantage of the covid-19 pandemic and the confinements to strengthen their leadership. The pandemic led to a setback in democratic matters in the region, according to the 2021 IDEA report, since it represented the possibility of postponing elections, retaining power or consolidating their government project.
In Mexico the foundations of authoritarianism did not disappear
In Mexico, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador himself stated: “The pandemic fell like a glove to strengthen the transformation.” Not only was the phrase controversial, but since then the official rhetoric and the government’s agenda contrary to various sectors of society have radicalized. And in terms of freedom of expression, the government began to disqualify and attack journalists, which is a characteristic of the move towards hybridization.
Another sector attacked has been the middle class. In 2021, in the midterm elections, the ruling party lost the qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies and half of the country’s capital that has historically belonged to the left. The president was quick to attack this sector, stating that “the middle class supported Hitler and Pinochet.”
From the point of view of polarization, President López Obrador and his co-religionists have divided the country in two: the good people against the aspirational or corrupt. In fact, the president has declared that “you are with the transformation or against it”, which is why he shows that for him there are no middle ground. This also further exacerbates divisionism.
The third element, the most worrying, is the militarization of functions that have historically been civilian. Although since 2006 the military has played an important role in public security functions, in this government they deepened when the Army became the main builder of the federal government’s megaprojects.
The Armed Forces also participated in educational tasks when they were entrusted with the distribution of books, in vaccination during the pandemic and in the formation of a civic-military body known as the National Guard, which has the objective of returning the Army to the barracks. . This civilian militarization has generated concern, since article 129 of the Constitution has been violated, which establishes that, in times of peace, the Armed Forces may only carry out activities related to military discipline. According to the academic Roger Bartra, in Mexico democracy arrived and opened up to plurality, but the foundations of authoritarianism did not disappear.
The rapid breakdown of democracy in El Salvador
Another case of hybridization is El Salvador, which has been transforming since Nayib Bukele became President. It’s about a outsider that broke with the bipartisanship of Arena and the Farabundo Martí Front, and from early on showed an anti-democratic attitude. On February 10, 2020, Bukele called for the insurrection and the Armed Forces to enter Congress and force the deputies to approve the loan for the Territorial Control Plan and thus fight crime.
The use of the Army to put pressure on Congress speaks of rapid democratic erosion, in addition to broad support from the population, since the president called, via Twitter, for the insurrection. Then, in March 2021, his Nuevas Ideas party won a qualified majority and within a month five magistrates were expelled from the Supreme Court and other people close to the government were appointed. This decision violated judicial independence and further undermined democracy.
In March 2022, the first state of emergency was decreed and until March 2023 it has been extended ten times. The military have become relevant and President Bukele has used them to justify the fight against crime, the lack of transparency and the constant violation of human rights. No one is opposed to reducing crime, but there is a regulatory framework to do so. When this barrier is broken, democracy is also broken, because without laws, it does not exist.
On the other hand, on September 16, 2022, Bukele announced that he would seek reelection in the 2024 elections. The Constitution prohibits immediate reelection of the Presidency in at least six articles, but this decision was justified by a ruling that establishes that, Although consecutive re-election has not been allowed, if the president leaves power six months in advance, he can run again. In this way, El Salvador has become an autocracy, a regime centered on the personality of a leader, and the political system is being molded in his image and likeness.
Beyond the diagnosis, we should be concerned about the advance of authoritarianism despite the high level of popularity and social support of leaders such as López Obrador and Bukele. Democracy is not perfect, but it can be perfected. Is it worth granting power and ceding rights to authoritarian leaders to solve problems with methods that hurt plurality and institutionality?
*Article originally published in Latinamerica21.