The 2022 election saw the Sweden Democrats emerge as the only true victors, while the Social Democrats saw a rise in votes but lost their hold on government power. Although M, KD, and L experienced declines, they were able to gain control. The Tidö Agreement heavily influenced the Sweden Democrats’ increased voter support and political power. However, despite initial excitement, the party struggled to make use of their newfound position, spending a significant amount of time negotiating with the government.
While opportunities for a skilled populist party exist due to the public’s increasing pessimism and rising food prices, the Sweden Democrats have been notably silent on the issue. Instead, they continue to prioritize the fuel price issue that dominated the election campaign. With a government that largely supports their immigration policy, they face difficulty in gaining more support. This also applies to criminal policy, as it will be challenging for them to claim alternative methods against gang violence with the government already implementing their policies.
Though the Sweden Democrats have a strong brand around immigration and crime, fewer people believe that they have the best solution for the country’s economic concerns. Over half of SD’s voters highlighted their finances as a significant reason to vote for Åkesson. The Moderates see potential in SD’s laxness on the economic crisis and hope that economic issues will shift the focus to them. With the majority of Åkesson’s voters being on the right, moderate strategists believe that SD has nowhere else to go. Nonetheless, if Åkesson’s numbers drop below 15 percent, the party will have to argue with the government. Though the Tidö Agreement is important, the party’s long-term plan to take over the right is more crucial.
The Sweden Democrats were the only real winners in the 2022 election. The Social Democrats did increase but lost government power. M, KD and L declined but in return got to reign. Only SD gained both more voters and political power through its heavy influence in the Tidö Agreement.
So it should be harvest time for SD. But when the first feeling of triumph after the Tidö Agreement subsided, the Sweden Democrats found it difficult to take advantage of their new role. Much effort is devoted to negotiating with the government.
Outside the negotiation rooms window, reality is full of opportunities for a skilled populist party. Voters are more pessimistic than ever, both about the country’s future and their own. Food prices are increasing more than in many other countries and real wages are falling. At the same time that the unions refrain from trying to compensate the wage earners.
Most striking is the Sweden Democrats’ silence about food prices. While V and S barely let a day go by without coming up with new proposals and tricks on how to get the spice retailers to red label more goods, SD is low.
Instead, the Sweden Democrats have chosen to continue pushing the wallet issue that was the biggest in the election campaign, that of fuel prices. Even though the price per liter has fallen.
Jimmie Åkesson has not even tried to connect inflation, interest rates and the galloping food prices to immigration policy.
Today’s political situation is new and above for SD. We have a government that broadly wants to implement the Sweden Democrats’ immigration policy. It is a heavy political victory, but at the same time it makes it more difficult to win over voters on the immigration issue.
The same applies to criminal policy. If the deadly gang crime continues, it will still be difficult for Jimmie Åkesson to claim that he has other better methods to deal with the gangs. He has already got them into the government’s policy.
It is often said that whoever has only a hammer sees nails everywhere. The Sweden Democrats’ hammer is the thesis that immigration caused all social problems. When problems that are not as easily linked to immigration appear, the party lacks tools.
Jimmie Åkesson has not even tried to connect inflation, interest rates and the galloping food prices to immigration policy.
Åkesson has built up a strong brand around immigration and crime – stronger than any other party. Significantly fewer believe that he has the best answer to how Sweden’s and the Swedes’ economy should be saved.
Although the Tidö agreement is important for SD, the long-term plan to take over the right is more important.
What was new in the 2022 election was that over half of SD’s voters stated that their own finances were an important reason to vote for Åkesson.
The moderates look with approval on SD’s laxness in the face of the economic crisis. The Prime Minister’s party hopes that politics has now finally ended up on the Moderates’ home turf – economic issues are to Kristersson what water is to fish.
Moreover, they point out moderate strategists satisfied, SD has nowhere else to go. The vast majority of Åkesson’s voters are on the right.
Nevertheless, Åkesson’s patience is hardly infinite. Should his numbers start to dip below, say 15 percent, the SD will have to argue with the government. Because even if the Tidö agreement is important for SD, the long-term plan to take over the right is more important.
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